What is Putin's next plan after Luhansk falls to Russia?

in instablurt •  2 years ago 

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This comes after Ukrainian troops decided to withdraw to avoid heavy and prolonged fighting, according to the regional governor.

"Russia currently benefits greatly from artillery and ammunition. They can easily destroy it from a distance, so there is no point in defending," said Serhiy Haidai.
The statement fits with what Russia described when it captured Lysychansk. Various videos uploaded to social media on Sunday (3/7) showed Chechen fighters dancing in the middle of the city without a fight.

The celebration is understandable. Because, with the fall of Lysychansk, Russia has practically occupied the entire Luhansk region, the strategic goal of President Vladimir Putin in the invasion of Ukraine.

So what does this mean for the Donbas battle and the war in Ukraine as a whole?

Let's start from the Ukrainian perspective.

For them, the most crucial thing is to avoid destruction as happened in Mariupol. Although they were able to slow the pace of the Russian military for weeks in Mariupol, that series of battles has killed and taken thousands of the most capable soldiers in the Ukrainian military into Russian captivity.

Ukraine wants to avoid that happening again.

In his speech, President Volodymyr Zelensky said this explicitly. "We will rebuild the walls, we will reclaim territory, but above all humanity must be saved."

Serhiy Haidai, governor of the Luhansk region, said similarly to me: "Our troops have retreated to a more protected position…We guarded the defense of Luhansk for five months. While guarding the defense, we built a new fort in the Donetsk region. Now all the troops are there. "

Hours after Lysychansk fell to Russia, Ukrainian presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovych even called the defense of Lysychansk-Severodonetsk a "successful military operation".

Given that the Russian flag is now flying in both cities, this claim is slightly contradictory to reality. However, the essence of Oleksiy Arestovych's statement is that Ukraine is in the middle of a long battle to buy time.

To understand this logic, you need to know the importance of weaponry from the West for the Ukrainian military.

In short, without the supply of weapons from NATO, Ukraine will be in greater trouble than the current situation.

The longer Ukraine can delay Russia's military advance, the more sophisticated the rocket and artillery systems Ukraine can use in combat.

The US-made HIMARS rocket launcher system, for example, has been used by the Ukrainian military and is said to have drastically changed the balance of the conflict.

More time for Ukraine to stockpile more weapons so it can turn things around, especially when a series of sanctions makes it difficult for Russia to replace weapons and ammunition.

Now it's the turn of the Russian perspective.

Their official goal was to seize, or as they call "liberating", the Donbas. Taking over Luhansk brought that goal one step closer.

This was highlighted in particular by President Vladimir Putin, when he bestowed the highest honor badge "Hero of Russia" on the commanders of the attack on Luhansk.

It is almost certain that the Russian military will try to seize the entire Donbas region, especially the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk - both of which have been under intense bombardment in recent days.

The city of Sloviansk is said to have special meaning for the Moscow-backed separatist movement because it was in that city that the first uprising occurred in 2014.

Beyond that, Russia's overall strategy is unclear. It would largely depend on the state of their troop strength if they finally took control of the Donbas.

In his statement, President Putin said: "The units that took an active part in the battle and achieved success and victory in Luhansk should definitely rest and improve their combat capabilities."

If they were still able to go fast, they could continue their march until all parts of Ukraine were occupied and even covered the City of Dnipro or beyond.

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On the other hand, if the Russian military is exhausted, as many analysts predict and Putin indicates, Russia may well declare an end to "special military operations"—the Russian term for the invasion of Ukraine.

They may hope that a unilateral ceasefire will reduce international support to Ukraine and some countries, perhaps France and Germany, promote peace.

Ukraine will undoubtedly continue to fight, but without arms supplies it is very possible that the frontlines will become a frozen conflict, as happened between 2014-2022. The turmoil in Ukraine is what Russia hopes for.

Currently, nothing is certain as both sides claim to have the upper hand. It should be noted that although the Ukrainians were repulsed from the Donbas, they have had recent successes, such as capturing Snake Island.

The only thing that is certain is that this war will not end anytime soon and the people of the Donetsk region will be the next victims.
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