Winter is coming and still the war goes on in Ukraine. I personally think Russia will keep a certain percentage of Ukrainian territory, NATO will do nothing, except of course if they think Russia can be beaten by them. Make no mistake, NATO knows a war with Russia would devastate Europe, just think it over, NATO had no qualms in attacking Serbia, but they knew Serbia was a walk over. Russia on the other hand is not. Are you convinced by Western press propaganda? Just think about this, Sweden and Finland, two countries proud of their neutrality and with actually good armies were scared into looking for NATO membership. I would think their military intelligence knows something.
Then we have the same Ukraine, when Russia got nasty a week ago, they immediately demanded NATO membership. Strange for a country that is easily winning the war and is in fact being armed by the weapons left behind by Russians when they run away. Yet, everyday they demand more weapons to be able to withstand the Russians. No my friends, Russia will win this, unless NATO puts boots on the ground, and if NATO does that, things will get very ugly for Europe.
Now let's look at this with some logic, Ukraine can't win, at the most Ukraine can get back the territory Russia now holds, which like I said is unlikely, this is somewhere around 18% of the whole country. Getting that back is what? A draw? Russia loses because it didn't get what it wanted? The thing is, we don't really know what Russia wants.
But I am wrong, if Ukraine does recover what it lost it will gain something that is actually not theirs, Crimea. Crimea was Russian for about 200 years, but before that it belonged to the Tatars, funny how I don't see anyone, anywhere demanding Crimea be reinstated to the Tatars. Probably doesn't fit the narrative, and oh, the Tatars are Muslims, that could have something to do with it.
But this war has also shown us something, for years Europe benefited from Russian cheap oil, this goes back to the USSR, from now on there will be no more cheap Russian gas or oil for Europe. So Europe's economy will see a permanent downturn. Just think about it, how much cheaper can you get than fuel shipped via a pipeline? From now on, Europe will buy more expensive fuel and will have to pay transportation costs.
This will impact every country in the World, because Europe will try to get hold of all the fuel it needs regardless of who suffers because of this, poor countries who have no oil will find it extremely hard to obtain, except if the petroleum producing countries set quotas. I have never liked the OPEC countries, but right now I think the fate of the World post Ukraine war, is in their hands and I am hoping they will be equanimous. Green energy? I really don't think so, this has been just a talking point for over 50 years and nothing has really come of it. Hydro and nuclear are a reality, but you can't move things with them, so back to petroleum it is.
Putin invaded Kyiv. The rest is just consequences
Actually he invaded Ukraine, of course the rest is just consequences. The sad thing is nobody is looking for a way out, if things go on like this, by the time it ends, which eventually it must, one way or the other, Ukraine, which was the poorest country in Europe before the invasion will be worse off than one of the poorer third world countries. And to top it up, they will owe untold billions of dollars.
When the war started UA begged for a deal and Russia was not near a resolution because Putin hed his troops in Kiev and felt strong. 7 months later both sides are so invested that no deal can conpensate for the loss. I agree that NATO is waiting for the right moment yo enter. Ukraine now has not much to lose and a lot to win. EU is afraid of the Russian aggression and will backup NATO. The only thing holding NATO back is Ardujan, and though he is a tyran he hates Putin and will be happy to watch him fall.
I guess you mean Erdogan. All conflicts are not straightforward, in this one I clearly remember Mr. Austin the US Defense Secretary saying that what they wanted was to weaken Russia, so actually Ukraine is putting the dead for the benefit of someone else. it has always been thus and it will always be like this, some profit, the majority suffer.
Blaming the victim is always cruel
If you think this is blaming the victim, there is nothing I can do. But it certainly makes me wonder what your thinking process is like. I just stated a fact, I am not blaming anyone, where do you get that from? Or perhaps, like me, English is not your native language?
Russia invaded Ukraine from east and from Belarus in the north and from the south. This special operation is a brutal act of war. Ukraine the victim had 2 choices - 1 going back to the soviet union days 2 - fight and hope to get help from the west.
While the west has their own interest, it did not make Ukraine fight. The horrible memories from the soviet union make the Ukrainian fight for their freedom. Russia is the attacker and Ukraine is the victim. We all wish the west will help more but the blame is on Russia only.
Frankly I do not know the inner workings of this conflict, I have been reading some of your posts, like you I try to read both sides. This war is different from others in that in this case the aggressor would be Russia not the West as has been the case in most recent wars, so the Western press is even more biased than usual. I do not believe what I read from the press on either side, not even at 50%. That being said, I do not hear anyone talking about peace, Russia says it will stick to its plan whatever that is, and Ukraine just asks for more weapons, and the West is full of rhetoric. Only two ways to stop this war, either sit down and talk or NATO goes in and becomes an active part in the war, this is where I think some people want this to go. Winter will be very difficult, well I live in Honduras where cold is when the temp goes down to 15 degrees. For those further up North things will be extremely difficult. And, unfortunately after whatever is done happens, it will still end in a truce, which could have happened months ago. It is not the people my friend, it is the leaders who are the problem.
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