00:00:00 - 00:40:00
In this YouTube video titled "В Украине ждем стабилизацию фронта / Путин и Нетаньяху ждут Трампа / Ирану конец / №827 - Юрий Швец," analyst Yuri Schveц discusses the ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, emphasizing their interconnected nature and the significant impact of the US presidential elections on their outcomes. Schveц shares insights from the academic resource "Беседа," which analyzes Biden's plan to support Ukraine and the potential risks of a Trump victory. The speaker also discusses the uncertainty surrounding who will support Ukraine after Biden's presidency begins and the potential consequences for Israel and Iran based on the election results. Schveц suggests that Biden may take significant steps to address the situation in Ukraine after the elections, but his hands are tied by the ongoing campaign. The video also touches upon the Russian company's involvement in the US elections and the potential catastrophic consequences if Trump is re-elected. The speaker encourages viewers to think critically and remains neutral on the issues discussed.
00:00:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "В Украине ждем стабилизацию фронта / Путин и Нетаньяху ждут Трампа / Ирану конец / №827 - Юрий Швец", the speaker discusses the interconnected nature of the Ukrainian and Middle Eastern fronts in the ongoing global conflict. He explains that key players are involved in both regions, and events on one front can significantly impact the other. The speaker emphasizes that he aims to provide an objective analysis of the situation, despite his declared allegiance to one side. He then shares the British Daily Telegraph's perspective on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, which suggests that negotiations for ending the war are unlikely in the near future and that Russia's recent successes in Donbass may lead to a relatively stable front line. However, the speaker disagrees with the characterization of Ugledar as a strategic objective, arguing that its fall would not pose a significant threat to the overall outcome of the war.
00:05:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "В Украине ждем стабилизацию фронта / Путин и Нетаньяху ждут Трампа / Ирану конец / №827 - Юрий Швец", analyst Yuri Schveц discusses the current state of the war in Ukraine and the Middle East, emphasizing that the outcome of both conflicts heavily depends on the outcome of the US presidential elections. He refers to a little-known academic resource called "Беседа" which analyzes Biden's plan to protect Ukraine's future during his remaining time in office. The White House is reportedly working on this initiative, with Biden aiming to strengthen US support for Ukraine before a potential Trump victory in the elections on November 5. The analysis in "Беседа" suggests that a Trump win could put US foreign policy towards Ukraine at risk. Schveц notes that while Harris is currently favored to win, the White House is preparing for a possible Trump victory and the potential consequences for US foreign policy towards Ukraine.
00:10:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "В Украине ждем стабилизацию фронта / Путин и Нетаньяху ждут Трамп / Ирану конец / №827 - Юрий Швец", the speaker discusses the uncertainty surrounding who will support Ukraine after Joe Biden's presidency begins on January 20, 2021. Currently, Biden is trying to solidify a political position in favor of Ukraine before leaving office. Trump is an unpredictable political figure, and it's theorized that he may do anything from openly opposing Ukraine to quickly and publicly surrendering it to Putin. European Union and American officials have expressed concern that Trump may cut off funding for Ukraine and even force its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, to agree to a ceasefire. The best-case scenario for the Biden administration would be to create a strong position for Ukraine and Harris to build upon effectively. However, Biden's hands are tied by the ongoing presidential campaign, and he may not take more decisive actions to help Ukraine or against Russia to avoid damaging Harris's campaign. After the election results are known on November 5, Biden's ability to act freely will increase, and he may take significant steps, such as organizing a United Nations resolution, to address the situation. Some of Netanyahu's supporters fear that Biden may cause harm to Israel in retaliation for his current tactics. This situation causes frustration in the White House, and there is concern among Netanyahu's supporters that Biden may retaliate after November 5.
00:15:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "В Украине ждем стабилизацию фронта / Путин и Нетаньяху ждут Трампа / Ирану конец / №827 - Юрий Швец", Ukrainian political analyst Yuri Schveц discusses the potential actions of the Biden administration towards Ukraine. He suggests that Biden may make a public gesture of support for Ukraine, possibly accelerating its entry into NATO or increasing its association with the alliance. Schvect also mentions that the Biden administration is expected to increase American aid to Ukraine, with a recent announcement of a $6 billion package for new weapons. Additionally, Schvect hints at the possibility of the U.S. relaxing restrictions on the use of British-American long-range missiles against Russia, marking a more aggressive stance towards Moscow. The analyst concludes by stating that Ukraine needs radical solutions from the U.S. and that while Biden may not be able to implement them before the U.S. elections on November 5, there is a window of opportunity after that. The discussion then shifts to the anticipated Israeli strike on Iran in response to Iranian missile attacks.
00:20:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "В Украине ждем стабилизацию фронта / Путин и Нетаньяху ждут Трампа / Ирану конец / №827 - Юрий Швец", the speaker analyzes the current situation in Iran and expresses concern over the regime's detachment from reality. The Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has been in power for over 800 years, is reportedly in poor health and losing touch with the external world. This has raised alarm among the regime's supporters, particularly within the Iranian military. The speaker notes that Iran's defense concept, which relied on a forward line of resistance including Hezbollah, Hamas, and other groups, has largely disintegrated, leaving Iran virtually defenseless against Israel. The situation is critical, and the outcome depends significantly on the results of the US elections and Netanyahu's relationship with Biden. Four possible developments in Iran are discussed: a large-scale Israeli attack that could lead to the regime's downfall, international pressure and sanctions that could cause a rift or weaken the regime, internal repression that could spark a new uprising, and a military coup to remove the dictator. The latter is considered the most likely scenario.
00:25:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "В Украине ждем стабилизацию фронта / Путин и Нетаньяху ждут Трампа / Ирану конец / №827 - Юрий Швец", the speaker discusses the potential consequences of Israel's attack on Iran, specifically the impact on Iran's internal politics. The speaker notes that the Iranian people's trust in their current leadership has been significantly eroded, which could lead to significant events or changes within the country. The situation is further complicated by the lack of a serious, legitimate political heir or successor for the current Iranian leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Reza Pahlavi, the son of the former Shah of Iran who was overthrown and lived in exile until his death from cancer in the United States, is mentioned as a potential leader of the opposition. He has been attempting to play an active role in the current events in Iran. Following a recent ballistic attack by Iran on Israel, Reza Pahlavi called on the people to take to the streets and for the military to join them, effectively advocating for a reversal of the revolution that brought down his father's regime. For Russia, China, and other countries, the potential fall of the Iranian regime could have significant consequences, as Iran is a major supplier of weapons and missiles. However, it is unlikely that this scenario is viable, whether through the regime's destruction or weakening. The speaker also notes that the outcome of the US presidential elections could impact the situation on the Ukrainian front, as the US response to Israel's actions is closely watched. The speaker mentions that they have heard that Israel will not delay in taking action, but there is a publication called "The Intercept" that is closely monitoring the situation. The speaker personally knows the founder of "The Intercept," journalist James Risen, who has a reputation for investigative journalism and has written about the NSA's surveillance activities in the US. Risen also investigated the last confrontation between the CIA and the KGB during the 1980s, marking the end of the Cold War.
00:30:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "В Украине ждем стабилизацию фронта / Путин и Нетаньяху ждут Трампа / Ирану конец / №827 - Юрий Швец", Yuri Schveц discusses the role of the upcoming US elections in ongoing wars between Russia, Israel, and Iran. According to Schvets' analysis, both Putin and Netanyahu want Trump to win the presidency again to continue and intensify their wars without American interference. They believe that a Trump presidency would give them free hands to act without the threat of new sanctions or weapons being supplied to their enemies. Netanyahu, in particular, is seen as a potential danger if given a free hand, as he may plunge the Middle East into a chaotic war that could even reach Israel. The absence of American restraint could lead to a global catastrophe. It's important to note that this perspective is not universally accepted, as some analysts believe that war is a necessary condition for political existence, while others disagree. Overall, the stakes of the US elections are high, as they could significantly impact the outcome of ongoing conflicts in the region.
00:35:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "В Украине ждем стабилизацию фронта / Путин и Нетаньяху ждут Трампа / Ирану конец / №827 - Юрий Швец", the speaker discusses the complexities of the Democratic Party in the context of the ongoing war and the upcoming US presidential elections. The Democratic Party is described as having two wings: the progressive wing, which wants an immediate end to the war and diplomacy, and the moderate wing, which is pro-Israel and against any concessions. The speaker argues that Joe Biden is in a difficult position, as he cannot fully align with either wing without losing significant support. The speaker also mentions Michael Murr, a powerful supporter of Kamala Harris, who suggests that losing Michigan, a state with a large Muslim population, could be disastrous for Harris. The speaker then discusses the possibility of Trump winning the election and the implications for Putin and Netanyahu. It is suggested that if Trump wins, he may give Netanyahu a green light to establish Israeli control over the remaining Palestinian territory. The speaker also mentions a recent poll in the US showing that 8% of Israelis would have voted for Trump if they had the opportunity. The speaker concloses by suggesting that Israel may take decisive action against Iran after November 5, depending on the outcome of the US elections.
00:40:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "В Украине ждем стабилизацию фронта / Путин и Нетаньяху ждут Трампа / Ирану конец / №827 - Юрий Швец", the speaker discusses the Russian company's involvement in the US presidential elections and how it aims to help Trump win again. The speaker notes that this interference is no longer hidden and that the consequences for the US and the world would be catastrophic if Trump is re-elected. The goal of Russia, according to the speaker, is to keep wars going without any repercussions for them. Netanyahu is also mentioned as a potential political leader if his war goes successfully, and Putin would benefit greatly from this situation. The speaker also mentions the tension on the Middle East, specifically regarding Iran, but notes that there are no loud declarations of support from Russia or China for Iran against Israel's actions. Instead, China is focusing on economic revival and the freedom of shipping lanes in the Red Sea. The speaker concludes by calling this situation a "strange world war" where the actions of the players on one side align only in their desire to harm the US, but their goals and motivations can differ greatly. The speaker also reminds the audience that he is not taking a definitive stance on any of these issues and encourages viewers to think critically. The video ends with a call to glory for Ukraine, a promise of victory, and a reminder to stay strong and have faith in their inevitable victory.