If Dnipro holds out — the threat will pass by 2026

00:00:00 - 00:55:00
In the YouTube video titled "Якщо Дніпро протримається — загроза мине до 2026 року" (If Dnipro holds out - the threat will pass by 2026), military experts discuss the ongoing threat of Russian attacks on Ukrainian regional centers, specifically mentioning Dnipro as one of the cities at risk. The speakers express concern over the constant shelling of these cities with various types of Russian weaponry, including ballistic missiles and guided aerial bombs. They estimate that Ukraine would need around 24 aircraft to provide continuous air cover and effective air defense, but currently cannot obtain this number. The experts also discuss the potential for Ukraine to acquire Israeli technology, such as the Iron Dome system , to defend against missile attacks. They acknowledge the challenges of integrating such systems into Ukraine's defense system and the political complexities involved. The speakers also discuss the military situation at the front lines, the importance of addressing equipment needs for defense formations, and the historical context of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. They argue that the United States and its allies aim to keep Russia as a powerful entity to maintain their own influence in the world and prevent the dissolution of the Russian Federation. The speakers also discuss the historical context of the Soviet Union's massive procurement of fuel and supplies during wartime and the ongoing arms race. Overall, the experts express concern over the long-term implications of the conflict and the potential for social unrest and resource depletion in Russia.

00:05:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Якщо Дніпро протримається — загроза мине до 2026 року" (If Dnipro holds out - the threat will pass by 2026), the speaker discusses the potential for Ukraine to acquire Israeli technology to defend against missile attacks, specifically mentioning the Iron Dome system. The speaker acknowledges the significant size difference between Ukraine and Israel but suggests that local defense systems, such as in the city of Kharkiv, could be developed or acquired. The speaker also notes Ukraine's strong engineering school in the field of air defense systems and mentions the progress being made in developing the Neptune missile system. The speaker expresses optimism that a solution could be found if Israel's position were more pro-Ukrainian, but notes that Israel's current stance is not to provide military aid. The speaker also mentions that Russia, a current adversary of Israel, has acquired many of Israel's drone technologies and that Israel has helped Russia build a factory to produce these drones. The speaker expresses confusion over why Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, takes a pro-Russian stance despite the Russian government's support for Ukraine's adversaries. The speaker also notes that Netanyahu has had personal relationships with Russian leaders and has communicated with them frequently. The speaker expresses hope that the Israeli military will present a personal exhibition of their weapons to Netanyahu, showcasing the Russian weapons found in Hezbollah's stockpiles in Lebanon. The speaker also mentions that an Israeli official recently denied that Ukraine and Russia are official partners and that Russia is not considered an ally or has a pro-Russian position.

00:10:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Якщо Дніпро протримається — загроза мине до 2026 року" (If Dniper holds out - the threat will pass by 2026), the speaker discusses the integration of Israeli air defense systems into Ukraine's defense system. The speaker notes that Israel is not transferring weapons to Ukraine but rather providing military and technical assistance. The United States, as a key ally of Israel, is also involved in the defense of Israel's airspace from Iran and terrorist organizations like Hezbollah and Hamas. The speaker mentions that Ukraine received $8.2 billion for military-technical support from the United States as part of their alliance obligations. The speaker also discusses the current state of the railway system in the Donetsk region and the potential for Russia to use it to transport supplies to the front lines. The speaker does not believe the Russian front will move faster than it has in the past few months and suggests that the lack of operational reserves in the Russian army may slow down its advance.

00:15:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Якщо Дніпро протримається — загроза мине до 2026 року" (If Dniper holds out - the threat will pass by 2026), the speaker discusses the military situation at the front lines and the challenges of defending against Russian forces. The ratio of Ukrainian to Russian military personnel on the front lines was approximately one to nine. The speaker emphasizes the need for significant efforts to eliminate such a large number of enemy soldiers and for the Ukrainian forces to survive and remain unharmed. The progress of the Russian forces is expected to be slow but could still last for weeks or even months. The General Staff should identify defensive lines to complicate the Russian advance, and the Ministry of Defense should purchase construction services from companies building these defensive lines. The speaker criticizes the current system, which is not effectively implementing the General Staff's plans on the battlefield. He also discusses the need for personnel changes and improvements in the military, especially during the third year of the war. The speaker also touches on the potential threats to Dniper and its residents and believes that it is unlikely that the Russian artillery will directly target the city in the near future. Instead, the Ukrainian forces will try to hold the front line as long as possible. The local authorities, particularly, play a crucial role in this situation.

00:20:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Якщо Дніпро протримається — загроза мине до 2026 року" (If Dnipro holds out - the threat will pass by 2026), the speaker discusses the importance of addressing equipment needs for defense formations and the need to reform and build up territorial defense, specifically in the city of Dnipro. The speaker recalls a successful defense of the city during the early stages of the war and emphasizes the need to continue building up defensive lines, inviting the general staff to collaborate on the construction of these defenses. The speaker also mentions the challenge of having soldiers focus on both defending themselves and digging trenches, leading to a constant retreat. The first line of defense for the Dnipro region should begin at the border of the oblast, with the responsibility of local authorities starting there, and the establishment of observation posts and defensive positions. The speaker also notes that Putin had intentions to capture Dnipro a decade ago and that the current conflict involves the destruction of Ukraine as a state and the forced assimilation or disappearance of those who do not conform.

00:25:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Якщо Дніпро протримається — загроза мине до 2026 року" (If Dniper holds out - the threat will pass by 2026), the speaker discusses Russia's intentions towards Ukraine and the potential invasion of the Dniper region. The speaker explains that Russia's ultimate goal is the destruction of Ukraine as a country and that the occupation of four regions is just the beginning. The speaker also mentions that Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov recently acknowledged that these four regions are now part of the Russian Federation. The speaker theorizes that Putin intends to launch an invasion specifically towards the Dniper region, and outlines potential scenarios, including the number of troops and equipment required. The speaker notes that Russia attempted to invade Ukraine in 2014, focusing on the eastern and southern regions, and that the Dnieper River prevented them from reaching Kyiv. The speaker also mentions that Russia currently lacks the personnel and equipment to launch a large-scale invasion, and that they may need to wait anywhere from six months to three years to build up their forces before resuming military operations. The speaker estimates that Russia may eventually field a two-million-strong army to invade Ukraine.

00:30:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Якщо Дніпро протримається — загроза мине до 2026 року" (If Dniper holds out - the threat will pass by 2026), the speaker discusses the Russian military buildup along the Ukrainian border in February 2022, estimating that around 200,000-250,000 Russian troops were involved. The speaker notes that if Russia were to launch an attack, it would require a significant force, potentially up to half a million personnel. However, the speaker suggests that Putin may need an operational pause to reorganize for another offensive. The speaker also mentions that some Western leaders have proposed engaging in peace talks, but this would depend on political decisions. The speaker expresses the belief that key Western partners, including the United States, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom, are prepared to fight Russia to a standstill. The speaker acknowledges that there are political forces in these countries that hold pro-Russian views and are pushing a Russian narrative. Europe has pledged 35 billion euros in support of Ukraine, and the United States is advocating for an additional 50 billion dollars in frozen Russian assets. The speaker also mentions that Turkey's position has changed, with Erdogan no longer advocating for peace talks based on the grain deal. Instead, Erdogan is now calling for the return of territory. The speaker notes that the border issue is a painful one for Turkey, as it deals with both internal and external separatism and border disputes. Subjectively, there is often a sense that the West understands the importance of the border as a sacred entity that should not be crossed. However, the speaker suggests that the West may be using the delay in military aid and the slow delivery of assistance in Ukraine as a tactic. The speaker is unsure if the goal is to avoid defeating Putin or if it is for another reason.

00:35:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Якщо Дніпро протримається — загроза мине до 2026 року" (If Dnipro Holds Out - The Threat Will Pass by 2026), a Ukrainian speaker discusses the geopolitical implications of the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. The speaker argues that the United States and its allies aim to keep Russia as a powerful entity to maintain their own influence in the world. They believe that a complete defeat of Russia could lead to the dissolution of the Russian Federation, which would have significant consequences for global security. The speaker notes that the US and its allies are providing military aid to Ukraine to regulate the course of the war and ultimately bring about a victory for Ukraine, while Russia is expected to make compromises to avoid further conflict. The speaker also reflects on the historical context of US involvement in the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the resulting fears of instability and the proliferation of nuclear weapons. The US and its allies are taking steps to prevent a repeat of the events of the 1990s and maintain control over the situation.

00:40:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Якщо Дніпро протримається — загроза мине до 2026 року" (If Dnipro Holds Out - The Threat Will Pass by 2026), the speaker discusses how the dissolution of the Soviet Union was prevented, in part, by the intervention of Bill Clinton in the UN peacekeeping forces in Yugoslavia. The speaker argues that Clinton's actions, which involved replacing UN peacekeeping forces with NATO troops, ultimately ended the Yugoslav war and solidified NATO's position in Europe. The speaker also mentions how the introduction of the Euro and the loss of control by the US over Europe could have led to the collapse of the Russian Federation if not for Putin's military actions in Ukraine. The speaker also touches upon how Biden's decision to abandon the land-lease program and instead invest in the US military-industrial complex boosted the US economy and created jobs.

00:45:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Якщо Дніпро протримається — загроза мине до 2026 року" (If Dniper holds out - the threat will pass by 2026), the speaker discusses the historical context of the Soviet Union's massive procurement of fuel and supplies during wartime, specifically mentioning the challenges of regulating the flow of goods and the role of the United States in delaying deliveries to allow Putin to mobilize his military-industrial complex. The speaker suggests that this delay was intentional and that the United States provided military aid soon after. The conversation then shifts to the ongoing arms race and the importance of maintaining a strong military-industrial complex, with a focus on the production and acquisition of weapons systems. The speaker also notes that many countries, including Ukraine, are still reliant on Soviet-era weapons and are receiving upgrades and modern equipment from their partners. The speaker concludes by emphasizing the importance of this ongoing arms race and the need for continuous investment in military technology.

00:50:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Якщо Дніпро протримається — загроза мине до 2026 року" (If Dniper holds out - the threat will pass by 2026), the speaker discusses the role of historical factors, specifically the humiliation of Germany after World War I and the resulting revanchism, in shaping the current attitude of Russian society towards the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The speaker explains that the West is attempting to weaken Putin by imposing sanctions and economic pressure on Ukraine, and that the attitudes of Russians towards the war are changing, with the majority of the population desiring an end to the conflict. The speaker also discusses the impact of sanctions on everyday life in Russia, including the inability to purchase European cars or replace software on Mercedes vehicles, and the deteriorating condition of Russian aircraft. Despite these changes, the speaker expresses concern that the conflict may continue, as the Russian military and society have not yet reached the point of wanting to end the war. The speaker suggests that a turning point may come in the 25th year of the conflict, possibly during a spring campaign, and that Ukraine may need to receive advanced weapons to gain an advantage in the air before then.

00:55:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Якщо Дніпро протримається — загроза мине до 2026 року" (If Dniper holds out - the threat will pass by 2026), military expert Oleg Zhdanov discusses the potential future developments of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. He explains that the balance of losses and their replenishment will be heavily skewed towards losses rather than their potential for recovery. Russian forces are expected to decrease in numbers due to a lack of personnel, and potential announcements of new mobilizations in Moscow could lead to social unrest. The Russian Federation may be running out of resources to sustain the war effort, and there is a possibility that they may attempt to negotiate a counteroffensive. However, the conflict is predicted to last at least until the late 2020s, and there is a possibility that it could continue beyond that. The outcome of the war will depend on the state of the Russian Federation, and it is possible that there could be a collapse of the front lines similar to the Herson and Kharkiv operations, allowing Ukraine to retreat to their territory.