00:00:00 - 00:50:00
In the video "Реальний кінець війни" hosted by Tatiana Trishchinska and featuring journalist Vitaliy Portnikov, the current complexities of Ukraine's situation are examined, particularly its dependence on U.S. military support amidst an advancing Russian army. Portnikov expresses concerns about the potential ramifications of a future U.S. shift in leadership and the ensuing impact on Ukraine's defense capabilities. He critiques the political leadership, particularly President Zelensky's approach to diplomacy and relations with Russia, advocating for a more strategic and united front. The discussion also addresses the challenges of maintaining public awareness and morale amidst the conflict, emphasizing the critical alignment between political leadership and military trust. As elections approach, the speaker warns of the risks of political figures exploiting public disillusionment, stressing the necessity for genuine representation that reflects the aspirations of the Ukrainian populace. Through this analysis, the conversation underscores the vital need for cohesive national efforts to sustain identity and resistance against external threats.
00:00:00 In this section, the host Tatiana Trishchinska introduces journalist Vitaliy Portnikov and discusses the complexity of Ukraine's current situation, suggesting it may be more challenging than in 2022. Portnikov agrees, emphasizing the critical reliance on American support for military aid as the country faces potential shortages in weaponry and personnel against an advancing Russian army. He highlights the uncertainty surrounding future U.S. assistance, especially if Donald Trump were to return to the presidency, suggesting that any delay in support could lead to a dire period for Ukraine from early 2025. Portnikov underscores the importance of professional leadership in navigating these turbulent circumstances, pointing to the need for strategic decision-making over emotional reactions in high-stakes situations.
00:05:00 In this section, the speaker discusses diplomatic relations and the complexities surrounding Ukraine's global support in the context of its ongoing conflict. He notes that while Ukrainian officials were advised against a presidential visit to Israel to maintain relations with the Global South, significant delegations, including representatives from Israel, attended a peace summit in Switzerland. Despite efforts to reduce Israel's representation, the speaker emphasizes that global southern countries have not shifted their stance on the conflict, balancing support for Ukraine's territorial integrity while continuing economic ties with Russia. The speaker draws parallels to historical situations, stressing that the backing of organizations like the UN has limited practical impact without solid military and economic support, particularly from the United States. He contrasts the pragmatic approaches of political leaders like Viktor Orban and Benjamin Netanyahu with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's emotional responses and mentions the importance of strategic diplomacy in navigating these complex international relationships.
00:10:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the limitations of Ukraine's political leadership, particularly focusing on President Zelensky's inability to effectively navigate complex diplomatic situations, including relations with Russia and the role of figures like Viktor Orban. The speaker suggests that Ukraine's attempts to engage Russia have been inadequate, leading to the necessity of demonstrating Ukraine's unwillingness to negotiate under current terms. They highlight the past interactions with Medvedchuk and emphasize the need for Ukraine to present a united front by encouraging direct communication between Zelensky and Trump, rather than relying on external intermediaries such as Orban, who is perceived as unsupportive. The speaker advocates for a more strategic political approach that would prevent Russia from appearing constructive while showcasing Ukraine's readiness to explore peace negotiations.
00:15:00 In this section, Vitaliy Portnikov discusses the need for Ukraine's diplomatic strategy to be clearer in addressing interactions with Russia, particularly regarding Viktor Orban's visit to Moscow, suggesting that such encounters should not be opportunities for PR at the expense of Ukrainian interests. He emphasizes the importance of public discussions about Ukraine's approach to Russia, rather than allowing external figures to legitimize their relationship with Putin through Ukrainian mediators. Portnikov proposes that a national salvation government should be formed, composed of advisors who can provide honest feedback, even if it is uncomfortable, ensuring that the leadership remains well-informed and capable of making effective decisions in the context of Ukraine's ongoing challenges with Russia. He critiques the political styles of leaders who gather only those who affirm their beliefs rather than challenging or providing alternative insights, warning that this can lead to strategic failures.
00:20:00 In this section, the discussion focuses on the challenges faced by President Zelensky amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. It emphasizes the importance of decision-making for the greater good of the country, highlighting that Zelensky's survival and legitimacy as president are contingent on making the right choices for national unity and support. The speaker outlines three possible scenarios: building a broad support base to show unity to both Washington and Moscow, a ceasefire that allows for presidential elections potentially leading to a leader open to compromise with Putin, or the continuance of the war under difficult conditions. The speaker stresses the necessity of collaboration with the current government and warns against underestimating the intricacies of voter sentiment in this crisis, urging a collective effort towards national resilience despite inherent political tensions.
00:25:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the challenge of societal awareness and understanding of the war's realities, noting that many people remain in a state of inertia. They emphasize that while some may focus on rebuilding and economic growth, there is a lack of recognition of the ongoing threats and sacrifices made by soldiers so that society can engage in these discussions. The speaker reflects on comparisons with other conflicts, particularly Syria, highlighting the dangers of complacency and the necessity of recognizing potential losses. They underscore the importance of maintaining national unity and commitment to resistance against the enemy, emphasizing that the decline in fighting spirit and support can lead to significant setbacks.
00:30:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the importance of political leadership and its relationship with the military in the context of war, using examples from the leadership dynamics in Syria. He emphasizes that when political power does not visibly align with the armed forces, it can lead to a significant loss of morale and trust within the military and society. The speaker contrasts the political experiences of various leaders, noting that while Bashar al-Assad lacked a genuine political struggle for power, his father Hafiz al-Assad possessed the battle experience that informed his leadership. The discussion shifts to current leaders like Trump, Putin, and Zelensky, reflecting on their survival instincts and political struggles, particularly mentioning that Zelensky has a greater instinct for survival than Putin due to his electoral experience. Ultimately, the speaker argues that without a serious reevaluation of government-society relations, Ukraine's progress is stunted, and he expresses concerns regarding the implications of impending elections amidst ongoing challenges.
00:35:00 In this section, the discussion revolves around the current political climate in Ukraine, particularly concerning the actions of political figures like Boiко, who appears to be preparing for the next elections amid a backdrop of public disillusionment. The speaker suggests that recent media activities, including Boiко's presence on TikTok, are strategic moves to capitalize on upcoming electoral opportunities. The conversation touches upon behind-the-scenes political diplomacy and the influence of certain individuals offering advice and facilitating connections among political entities. The speaker expresses concern over the potential consequences of voters, including those with patriotic backgrounds, aligning with candidates who may not genuinely represent their values, but rather offer stability, disregarding the broader aspirations of the Ukrainian populace. Overall, it reflects a cautious outlook on the potential shifts in Ukrainian politics and public sentiment as elections approach.
00:40:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the dynamics of Ukrainian political parties during times of conflict, emphasizing that the current Ukrainian government must recognize its role in the "party of war" as a necessity for the preservation of Ukraine. He reflects on the historical shifts between the "party of war" and the "party of peace," illustrating how various political figures have perceived and engaged with these labels over time. The speaker stresses that the transition from a war to a peace mindset is virtually impossible while the country is under threat, and points out the importance of intelligence operations, particularly by American agencies, in shaping the political landscape and influencing the actions of adversaries. Furthermore, he expresses concern about the potential misinformation that may emerge from media sources, urging the audience to remain vigilant and discerning.
00:45:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the complexities of Ukraine's situation, highlighting concerns about the leadership of President Zelensky and President Biden, and how these figures are perceived as potentially undermining Ukraine’s efforts. The speaker warns that dismissing these leaders could lead to dire consequences, particularly emphasizing that the current state of affairs exists due to Biden's firm stance against Putin and the bravery of the Ukrainian armed forces. There is a critical reflection on how people's perceptions of occupation can be skewed by a lack of firsthand experience or historical understanding, suggesting that a passive view of past occupations can lead to dangerous complacency. The speaker recounts historical parallels, noting that individuals often fail to recognize the threats posed by authoritarian regimes until it is too late, emphasizing that dictatorial power operates with a microscope on society, seeking out dissent and stifling individual voices.
00:50:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the ongoing risks faced by individuals with ties to Ukraine, particularly at border crossings where people may be questioned or detained based on their identities. There is a concern about attempts to erase Ukrainian identity and impose a Russian identity, reflecting a deeper geopolitical struggle that threatens not just the state but the very existence of the Ukrainian nation. The speaker emphasizes the need for the government to engage openly and honestly with citizens about the realities of their situation, rather than offering false hope or promises of improvement. The focus should be on collective efforts to preserve the state and national identity amidst the ongoing crisis, with a call for more mature communication from the authorities to the populace.