Stablecoins with a peg are always vulnerable to shorters

in stablecoins •  2 years ago 

If you are not British you probably haven't heard of Black Wednesday, 16th September 1992, an infamous day in British history.

Britain had joined the European Monetary System, where EU member states pegged their currencies to the Deutschemark, with a free float of 3% each way. The idea was that the float would gradually tighten till it was a hard fixed peg, at which point all the currencies would convert at the final exchange rate into the euro.

Lots of Brits were unhappy about this; some hated the idea of the thousand-year-old Pound Sterling being converted to something else; others objected on economic grounds, arguing the policy was wrong for the UK economy.

At the time Germany was experiencing inflation caused by reunification, and kept raising interest rates, which strengthened the Deutschemark. This meant everyone else had to raise interest rates to keep within 3% of the DM - whether their economies needed it or not, creating recessions in the pegged countries.

On 16th Sept 1992, the markets attacked. Led by George Soros they shorted the pound, the Irish punt, the Italian lira and the French franc among others.

The Bank of England spent £1bn in a day defending the pound before throwing in the towel and exiting the mechanism. The Irish punt and Italian lira also exited, though they later rejoined at a lower exchange rate.

The pound never rejoined. Exiting the straitjacket of the EMS kicked off a continuous 15 year boom where the UK outperformed the other EU countries. This confirmed the public's view that the peg was a "silly European idea" and fueled broader euroscepticism and the belief that the EU was the source of "bloody stupid policies".

When the eurozone crisis hit and Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain and Portugal entered severe recessions and had to be bailed out by the IMF on condition of austerity, received wisdom in Britain was that Black Wednesday was a stroke of luck which enabled the UK to dodge the euro bullet.

Pegs are, as the British would say, "a bloody stupid idea". You can't claim value from something external, value has to come from internal, intrinsic elements. If the markets smell the lack of intrinsic value, they'll attack.

UST was an accident waiting to happen. The only reason the Hive Dollar wasn't attacked is because it's not listed on Binance or any exchange that allows leveraged shorting. When it gets listed it will inevitably get attacked, so use a listing as a signal to exit Hive Dollars.

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  ·  2 years ago  ·  

Hello Candy. I think the same principles apply but there is a twist with the free ability to convert to Hive via the blockchain mechanism (not trading).