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Having recently reviewed the players who overperformed their xG data (Read Part 1 and Part 2 if you missed it) and seen the importance of goals in our most recent article, we thought that it would be interesting to see how over/under performing a team's xG metric impacts their Premier League status. We're also interested in which teams consistently over/under-perform.

Raw Data

We'll begin by sharing with you the raw data that was used for this analysis. We've looked at the past 5 seasons and included teams that are no longer in the Premier League.

The team highlighted in Green was crowned Premier League champions, those in Red were relegated and those in Yellow had a new manager or managerial change (some have snazzy 2-tone sacking/relegation).

I don't know how helpful the "sackings" colour is - It makes for interesting viewing for Everton fans and perhaps Watford fans are reminded that Javi Garcia survived a full season!

The Top Teams Consistently Overperform Their xG

Whilst it might feel intuitive that the top teams create the most chances, they're also more clinical when the chances do come their way.

Man City are consistently near the top of the G-xG charts (only in 2016/17 did they top the charts) and have ended as the Premier League's top scorers for every season listed.

Pep Guardiola has clearly filled his high quality squad with confidence and do any other managers stand out in this regard...

Do Some Managers Give Their Players Confidence?

David Moyes

David Moyes is in his 2nd spell as West Ham manager after leading them for a large part of their 2017/18 campaign. The Hammers consistently outperform their xG, even more so when David Moyes is in charge.

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Brendan Rogers

Leicester's overperformance (largely thanks to Jamie Vardy) increases with each season and giving the players some confidence was an early priority for him when he was appointed.

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Steven Gerrard

Although it's still relatively early in Gerrard's Aston Villa tenure, his side was far more clinical last season than it has been before so something to keep an eye on again next season.

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If Teams Underperform their xG, they're far more likely to get Relegated

Each season, 2 of the 3 teams that have been relegated have appeared in the bottom 3 for G-xG so this is a stat to keep an eye on in the season run-in.

Brighton have survived this stat in 2020/21 and 2021/22
Everton survived it in 2019/20
Nobody survived it in 2018/19
All 3 teams (Crystal Palace, Newcastle and Southampton) survived it in 2017/18.

Which leads us nicely on to...

Are Brighton Lucky to have Avoided Relegation?

Brighton are the only team consistently underperforming their xG to have been in the Premier League for the duration. Their finishing was so bad in the 2020/21 season, that if they'd have matched their xG, they would have finished 5th (they finished 16th).

Of the 10 teams that appear at the bottom of the table, they're the only team that hasn't been relegated within the last 5 seasons.

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I'm sure that there's plenty more that can be gleaned from this data so please share some thoughts with us in the comments below.

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