Having reviewed each team's consistency in over or underperforming their Expected Goals in our last article, this article looks at the defensive equivalent: Goals Against - Expected Goals Against.
In this instance, a negative value is good - it potentially means that the Goalkeeper and Defenders are making saves or clearances that they have no right to be making. But... it could also mean that the team's getting lucky and their luck could soon run out (or maybe even a bit of both).
Raw Data
Once again, we'll begin by sharing the raw data with you which has been accumulated from 5 seasons worth of data from understat.com and have continued to include teams that are no longer in the Premier League.
As before, the team highlighted in Green was crowned Premier League champions, those in Red were relegated and those in Yellow had a new manager or managerial change (some have snazzy 2-tone sacking/relegation).
The Teams That Get Relegated Normally Concede More Goals Than They Should
Similar to "if you don't score, you're likely to get relegated", it comes as little surprise that if you concede goals that you should be, then you're more likely to get relegated.
In the case of almost all of the relegated teams though, they combined the dreaded combination of scoring fewer and conceding more than they should have done.
Things Don't Look Good for Southampton
| Season | G-xG | GA-xGA |
| 2021/22 | -5.8 | 2.4 |
| 2020/21 | 4.6 | 9.5 |
| 2019/20 | -2.9 | 3.4 |
| 2018/19 | -3.5 | 5.7 |
| 2017/18 | -6.1 | 9.4 |
For 4 of the last 5 seasons, Southampton have scored fewer goals than they should have and conceded more, with their worst underperformance being in 2017/18 where they avoided relegation by 3 points.
They had a poor end to last season and if these numbers are anything to go by, they'll need to improve significantly at both ends of the pitch.
Signs of a Tough 2nd Season for Brentford
Similar to Southampton's data (albeit from a smaller sample size), Brentford underperformed their xG and xGA. With the expectation that Christian Eriksen won't be with the Bees this season and teams having more knowledge of what to expect, there are signs that Brentford could succumb to the dreaded "2nd season syndrome".
Goalkeeper Transfers Could Be Interesting
Looking at the teams at the top of the raw data, a few Goalkeeping stories unfold.
Sheffield United's 2 seasons in the Premier League had Dean Henderson and Aaron Ramsdale between the sticks. Henderson in particular played a key role in their 2019/20 season and a possible loan move to Nottingham Forest could be great news for their survival hopes.
Another Goalkeeper that Nottingham Forest are rumoured to be interested in is Nick Pope. Burnley overperformed their xGA in 4 of the last 5 seasons - the only season that they underperformed was the year that the position was shared by Joe Hart and Tom Heaton. In Pope's 4 seasons as Burnley's No. 1, he contributed to 28 xGA not going in.
Other Notable Goalkeepers
Alisson Becker
Since his move to Liverpool at the beginning of the 2018/19 season, they have averaged 6.4 "goals not conceded" per season. Few goalkeepers included here have shown this incredible consistency and it's no surprise he's regarded as one of the best Goalkeepers in the world.
Hugo Lloris
Another Goalkeeper who has shown great consistency with an average of 5.7 "goals not conceded" over the 5 seasons reviewed. The overperformance has been in a gradual decline though so it'll be interesting to watch this over the 2022/23 season.
Łukasz Fabiański
His move from Swansea to West Ham at the end of the 2017/18 season coincides with West Ham's improvement in overperforming their xGA. His teams average of 5.7 "goals not conceded" puts him up there with Alisson and Lloris. He tends to be reasonably priced in FPL if you're not put off by West Ham's opening fixture against Man City.
José Sá
The final Goalkeeper we'll mention is José Sá who had a remarkable season with Wolves. The team conceded 15-16 goals less than they were "expected to" and the credit largely goes to their new signing.
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