📈 FPL 2020/21 - Defying Stats - The Overachievers (Part 2)

in blurtsport •  3 years ago 

FPL Overachievers Part 2 - Son Heung-Min, Emile Smith Rowe, Bruno Guimaraes and Wilfred Zaha
Source 1 +Source 2 +Source 3 +Source 4 + Lots of Photoshop

Having reviewed Kevin De Bruyne, Jamie Vardy, Yoane Wissa and Cucho Hernández in our Overachievers Part 1 article, we're back to look at 4 more "overachievers" from the 2021/22 season, all of which are pretty much guaranteed to be making an appearance in FPL next season.

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Son Heung-Min

(Per 90 stats are in brackets)

SeasonGoalsxGDifference
17/1812 (0.47)10.4 (0.40)+1.6 (+0.07)
18/1912 (0.53)7.5 (0.33)+4.5 (+0.20)
19/2011 (0.40)8.9 (0.32)+2.1 (+0.08)
20/2117 (0.49)10.3 (0.30)+6.7 (+0.19)
21/2223 (0.69)16.4 (0.49)+6.6 (+0.20)
SeasonMinutesFPL PointsPP90*
17/182,2921787.0
18/192,0331597.0
19/202,4781696.1
20/213,1192286.6
21/223,0092587.7
  • PP90 - Points Per 90 Minutes
Son Henug-Min FPL

Across these 2 articles, this is probably the least surprising name to appear. Son has consistently outperformed his expected goals data and seems to be improving with each season, 2021/22 being his best FPL season to date.

Not only are his FPL scores improving, somewhat remarkably, he's becoming even more clinical and playing in a role which is providing him with even more chances than ever before. He'll be impossible to ignore if he's priced at £10.0m again next season which we feel is unlikely and wouldn't be surprised to see a price hike to £11.5m to £12m.

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Emile Smith Rowe

(Per 90 stats are in brackets)

SeasonGoalsxGDifference
19/200 (0.00)0.0 (0.00)-
20/212 (0.13)2.0 (0.13)+0.0 (+0.00)
21/2210 (0.47)5.8 (0.27)+4.2 (+0.20)
SeasonMinutesFPL PointsPP90*
19/209443.8
20/211,438744.6
21/221,9091255.9
  • PP90 - Points Per 90 Minutes
Emile Smith Rowe FPL

Emile Smith Rowe's an interesting inclusion and it's hard to say whether he's in Arteta's first choice XI - as it appears that Saka, Martinelli, Ødegaard and Nketiah are the proffered front 4.

Much to the frustration of Saka and Martinelli owners in particular, Smith Rowe would often pop up off the bench and score the only chance that comes his way so him outperforming his xG metric shouldn't come as a big surprise.

The challenge is deciding whether Smith Rowe's a viable option if he can cement himself in Arteta's starting XI next season. Obviously, much will depend upon his price point and it wouldn't be a huge surprise to see Smith Rowe similarly priced again next season - perhaps increasing slightly to £6.0m - £6.5m. It's too early to predict whether he'll continue to outperform his xG data but it's something to keep an eye on if he gets in amongst the goals, contrary to what any data suggests.

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Bruno Guimarães

(Per 90 stats are in brackets)

SeasonGoalsxGDifference
19/20 (Lyon)0 (0.00)0.0 (0.00)-
20/21 (Lyon)3 (0.15)2.4 (0.12)+0.6 (+0.03)
21/22 (Lyon)0 (0.00)0.8 (0.04)-0.8 (+0.04)
21/225 (0.43)2.9 (0.25)+2.1 (+0.18)
SeasonMinutesFPL PointsPP90*
19/20---
20/21---
21/221,031675.8
  • PP90 - Points Per 90 Minutes
Son Henug-Min FPL

Expected to play as a holding midfielder, Guimarães appeared to be overpriced at £5.0m in a team battling against relegation but proved to be anything but. For the few that bravely handed him the armband for Newcastle's Double Gameweek 33, Guimarães will live long in the memory.

We're expecting Guimarães to play a pivotal role for Newcastle next season but it's difficult to predict how attacking he'll be. He seems happy to shoot from just about anywhere but his goals for Newcastle have all come from in and around the box - 3 of last season's 5 goals were 6-yard box territory. Which indicates that he's clinical when he's in the right positions and similar to Smith Rowe, we'll take a watching brief at the start of the season.

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Wilfred Zaha

(Per 90 stats are in brackets)

SeasonGoalsxGDifference
17/189 (0.32)10.5 (0.37)-1.5 (-0.05)
18/1910 (0.30)6.4 (0.19)+3.6 (+0.11)
19/204 (0.11)5.3 (0.15)-1.3 (-0.04)
20/2111 (0.38)7.5 (0.26)+3.5 (+0.12)
21/2214 (0.46)9.4 (0.31)+4.6 (+0.15)
SeasonMinutesFPL PointsPP90*
17/182,5491364.8
18/193,0371434.2
19/203,2791203.3
20/212,6121364.7
21/222,7591504.9
  • PP90 - Points Per 90 Minutes
Wilfred Zaha FPL

The final player we'll be reviewing in these articles is Wilfred Zaha. Under Roy Hodgson, Zaha was very much Crystal Palace's talisman but since Vieira's arrival along with a wealth of attacking talent, there's less of a dependency upon the Ivory Coast International. This has seen Zaha have his most successful FPL season so far but the 150 points still feels low for somebody who always seems to promise so much more.

Zaha appears to be a player who either tracks his xG fairly nicely or outperforms it significantly so if Crystal Palace have a good run of early fixtures, he could be an interesting option - especially if he continues to be priced at £7.0m which he has been for the past 5 seasons.

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