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We thought it would be interesting to look at how successful teams promoted from the Championship have been in the following Premier League season. We're keeping things simple because there are far too many variables (e.g. Transfers In, Money Spent, Attendances, etc.) and simply looking at Position Finished, Goals Scored, Goals Conceded, Goal Difference, Points and the corresponding "Expected (e.g. xG)" equivalent where available.

We hoped that we might find something interesting that might help us to decide which teams to target (if any) and how likely it is that Aleksandar Mitrović will let us all down again.

We've compiled data going back to the 2001/02 seasons so have 60 promoted teams to analyse and whilst there was plenty of "not very much" to look at, we did find a few interesting stats for you...

🎵 We are staying up, say we are staying up...🎵

Of the 60 teams that we looked at, fewer than half of the teams (27) have gone straight back down.

Teams Promoted From 4th Position Get Relegated

Sorry Nottingham Forest - The previous 4 teams who have been promoted via a 4th placed finish and the play-offs have all been relegated the following season. Burnley (promoted in 2008/09) finished 18th, QPR (2013/14) finished bottom, Hull City (2015/16) finished 18th and Fulham (2019/20) also finished 18th.

Teams that have finished 3rd, 5th and 6th have always fared better.

Promotion With Goals Boosts Your Survival Chances

Teams that scored plenty of goals whilst getting promoted tend to do much better than teams with a strong defence.

Of the teams that have scored 90 or more goals in their promotion season, only once (Norwich City's relegation in 2019/20) has a team been relegated the following year. The 6 teams that survived all had solid mid-table finishes.

Team	Year Promoted	Goals Scored	League Finish
Man City	2001/02	108	9th
Reading	2005/06	99	8th
Bournemouth	2014/15	98	16th
Portsmouth	2014/15	97	13th
Norwich	2018/19	93	20th (R)
Watford	2014/15	91	13th
Newcastle	2009/10	90	12th

This bodes well for Fulham's chances who got promoted with 106 goals scored. Maybe it's time to forget what Mitrović did to us last time.

Teams that scored a similar number of goals to Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest usually got relegated.

Promotion With a High Goal Difference Significantly Boosts Your Survival Chances

The 11 teams that were promoted with a Goal Difference of 41 or higher stayed up. The Goal Difference would go down to all of the teams with +38 if you ignore Norwich, who consistently get relegated, regardless of how well they do in their promotion year.

Once again, good news for Fulham fans who earned promotion with a goal difference of +63 but bad news for Bournemouth and Forest fans, teams around the 33 (Notts Forest) to 35 (Bournemouth) Goal Difference get Relegated (7 out of 9).

Conclusion

So things are looking good for Fulham and whilst many of us will be fearful of backing the likes of Aleksandar Mitrović again, if his price and early fixtures are favourable, the temptation might just be too great.

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