The halving, which occurs every four years, results in a permanent decrease in Bitcoin block rewards. These block rewards are critical to miners because they compensate them for breaking blocks on the network.
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Bitcoin will be halved in less than 300 days. The Bitcoin halving has historically been quite important to the crypto market. When block rewards are slashed in half, Bitcoin production tightens, making them more scarce and frequently causing higher demand.
As a result, multiple past halvings have been tied to bull market peaks, accompanied by a strong positive narrative. In reality, halvings are frequently used as a reference point to define Bitcoin cycles.
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According to the chart above, the cycle lows in the current cycle and the prior two cycles happened roughly the same number of days after the last halving.
This implies a possible cyclical trend, but it is unclear whether the low point reported during the FTX crash event in November 2022 is a true cycle bottom for the current cycle.
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BTC was in the early stages of building a bull market two cycles earlier, and at the pinnacle of the April 2019 rise the previous phase. The current Bitcoin cycle's course is unknown, and it could follow one of the past patterns.
Another key indicator that is explained in the chart is the realized price of Bitcoin during each cycle. This price represents the average market holder's base price, often known as the acquisition or buy price.
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Surprisingly, the realized price has followed a similar curve in the last two cycles, and it appears that the current cycle will follow the same trend. However, the realized price is currently in between both of the previous cycle's curves, signaling uncertainty about BTC's future course.