When It's Convenient to Buy a Pack of Untamed Cards: Potions, DEC, and Estimated Value.
There are two ways to purchase cards directly from https://splinterlands.com/:
- buy a card from the Market section
- buy a pack of Untamed or Dice cards from the Shop section
In this post I will make a series of calculations and evaluations regarding the convenience or not of buying a pack of Untamed cards from the Shop of the Splinterlands game.
Is it worth buying a pack of Untamed cards?
The correct answer to this question is: it depends.
In fact, the convenience of buying a pack of cards from the shop depends on different factors:
- estimated value of a pack of cards
- number and type of potions available
- value of DEC tokens
- choice of the right purchase method.
A pack of Untamed cards can be purchased via two payment methods:
- Credits
- Token DEC
If we choose to buy a pack of Untamed cards with Credits, the cost is 2000 Credits which corresponds to the value of $2.
If we choose to buy a pack of Untamed cards using DEC tokens we will spend 2000 DEC whose value is determined by the offer and demand of those who want to buy DECs and those who want to sell DECs on the HiveEngine/LeoDex market.
Today March 8, 2021 1 DEC token is worth 0.00207 HIVE (Lowest Ask on HiveEngine/LeoDex).
The value of 1 HIVE is 0.309$ and therefore the dollar value of 1 DEC is 0.00064$
Spending 2000 DEC (cost of 1 Untamed package) is equivalent to spending 1.27926$
It is evident that at this time it is much more convenient to use DECs as a method of purchase and not credits.
In fact using DEC tokens the savings is 0,72074$.
Now we just have to evaluate if spending 1,27$ to buy a pack of Untamed cards brings a profit or a loss.
A pack of Untamed cards contains 5 cards with the guarantee that at least one card out of 5 is of type Rare or higher (Epic or Legendary).
Therefore, it is not possible to determine the exact value of a single card pack, but only an estimated value can be determined.
The Peakmonsters website provides Splinterlands players with a useful tool (https://peakmonsters.com/packs) to determine the estimated value of an Untamed card pack.
The estimated value varies depending on whether or not you use legendary and alchemical potions.
The estimated value of a pack of Untamed cards is:
- 0.77$ in the situation where you don't have potions
- 0.98$ in the situation where Alchemical potions are used
- 1.06$ in the situation when using Legendary potions
- 1.35$ in the situation where both Alchemical and Legendary potions are used.
The cost of the potions is as follows:
- Alchemical potion: 49 DEC = 0.02495$.
- Legendary potion: 39 DEC = 0,03134$
Each pack of cards requires 10 potions in total:
- 5 alchemical potions: total cost 0.15671$
- 5 legendary potions: total cost 0.12473$
Untamed card packs can also be purchased on HiveEngine/LeoDex.
At the time of writing this post buying a pack of cards from HiveEngine/LeoDex is more convenient and costs only 1.23291$
The only disadvantage of buying card packs on HiveEngine/LeoDex is that you lose a chance to receive a card from the draw (airdrop) that happens every time 100000 Untamed packs are sold.
In fact, every pack of cards purchased from the Splinterlands site or the PeakMonsters site entitles you to an additional chance.
Conclusion
Based on the current values of HIVE and DEC and based on the above calculations, it is clear that buying a pack of cards is not worth it in the following cases:
- you don't have potions and you have to buy them
- you have only alchemical potions
- you have only legendary potions
In all three of these cases the estimated value is less than the cost of buying the card pack.
There is only one case in which it may be convenient to buy one or more packs of cards:
- you have potions and don't have to buy them because you have found and accumulated a sufficient number of alchemical and legendary potions in the chests obtained from completing daily quests and end-of-season rewards.
In this case the cost per pack is 1.27$ while the estimated value is 1.35$.
Luck plays a major role when buying a pack of cards but having an even if only estimated chance of making a profit can be a good reason to decide to buy a pack of cards.
NOTE: As pointed out on the Peakmonsters website, estimates of the return on the purchase of a pack of cards are more accurate when buying a number of packs of cards greater than 500.
The more you go below that number, the more the luck factor becomes more and more crucial.
As you can see from the image below on my game account I have more than 300 potions.
Personally I don't like to buy packs of cards because I don't like to rely on luck but if the value of HIVE will remain stable and if the value of the DEC tokens will still fall, I will seriously consider the possibility to buy several packs of cards.
I hope you liked my post and thank you for reading.
With this post I am participating in the weekly Splinterlands contest entitled "Social Media Challenge".
If you're a Splinterlands player, I highly recommend that you participate as well.
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