Blurt Economic Indicators - 6 June 2021

My weekly look at Blurt's economic indicators.

All rises and falls are relative to last week.

Blurt Economic Indicators

BLURT Supply = 423.1 million
Vested BLURT = 50.1% (+0.2)

Reward Pool = 2.09 million BLURT (rising)
Recent Claims = 80.8 TRshares (falling)

Vote Yield upper estimate (500k BP) = 48.0% APR (falling)
Vote Yield lower estimate (500 BP) = 47.4% APR (rising)

Author/Curation Yield lower estimate = 23.7% APR (half of the Vote Yield)

You can also see the raw numbers on a blockchain explorer.

Insights

With HF6 being implemented, and a change to an almost-linear reward system, there are some quite dramatic changes to the vote-yields.

Notice that the two yields, the upper and lower estimates, are now almost the same - that's the first effect.

But also notice that the new values are higher than last week's lower estimate, going from 44.4% to the current 47.4%. I expect this number to rise further next week. In contrast, the upper yield has fallen from 69.0% to 48.0%. That's just the nature of straightening the curve, but this too will rise fairly quickly.

I shall publish these two numbers for maybe a couple of weeks and then just have one average value - just to illustrate how they are now very close to each other. Just to add that what the new stable yield will be depends on chain activity, as it has always done. Over a period of months, that value will change; even if activity remains constant, the minting rate slowly decreases and affects the rate at which the reward pool is filled.

One question needs articulating: why did HF6 have the effect of lowering the whale yield down to minnow level, only to then both rise together? Why did the system not do it the other way round: why not raise the minnow level first and then have all levels drop down?

Firstly, the end result would be exactly the same. After the 15-day cycle of the reward pool, both scenarios would end up in the same place.

The reason for not doing it the second way, is that the original change was to the so-called content-constant - this is just one parameter within the economic system. So, to avoid a lot more coding, we just needed to change that single parameter, plus ensure that the chain recognised the HF6 changes.

In order to have the rewards rise first and then fall would have meant rewriting the whole formula and doing the calculations necessary to create a well-behaved curve. This will be done at some point in the future, but this was supposed to unfix the fix, so the extra hours of work were not warranted. Also, every hardfork and every new conditional puts some load on processing speeds, so it is best to make big changes when it is felt necessary and useful. In this case, as there would be no difference in the end result, it was felt that such a big change for no long-term benefits was not a good use of resources.

Comparisons

As I've said before, such yields at the moment are higher than many defi swap pools - and without the danger of "impermanent losses". With BLURT coin prices being so low, this is also a good time to increase one's Blurt Power and accumulate for a future rise.

We continue to see other crypto socmedia sites struggling, and sometimes failing, because they really do not have a robust economic model. Blurt has had its issues, but the aims have not changed, so I hope to see the next phase of economic improvements soon - probably in 4 to 6 months, being conservative.

A comparison with the other Graphene chains done using the DLease delegation rates.

Steem DLease rates: max 30.3% APR (average 24.5%)
Hive DLease rates: max 13.0% APR (average 10.3%)

Those rates have always tracked the profitability of each chain and have the advantage of being one simple number.

Although Vote Yields are expressed in terms of financial returns, they are also fundamental expressions of the level of activity on each chain relative to the coin minting rate.

As we don't seem to have a functioning price feed on the explorers, these price snapshots may also help users decide where to trade BLURT.

Ionomy/Probit: 9/12 sats/BLURT (approx $0.0036)
Hive-Engine: 0.009/11 HIVE/BLURT (approx $0.0048)

The HIVE market appears to be the most active and the most volatile, so these are numbers for the current price range and best conversion to USD.

Note that BLURT is currently some 25% cheaper on the non-HE exchanges.

I hope these numbers will give members some insights into how the Blurt economic system is managed and, more importantly, how each individual user can both benefit from and affect the whole chain.

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Can be done directly here.
A witness is more than a machine.
Thanks!

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