My weekly look at Blurt's economic indicators.
All rises and falls are relative to last week.
Blurt Economic Indicators
BLURT Supply = 464.7 million
Vested BLURT (BP) = 55.5% (+0.0)
BP Voting Capacity = 39.3% (+0.6)
Reward Pool = 1.924 million BLURT (=0.011M)
Recent Claims = 152.2 TRshares (+2.6T)
Vote Yield estimate (100k BP) = 25.7% APR (-0.5)
Author/Curation Yield estimate = 12.8% APR (half of the Vote Yield)
You can also see the raw numbers on a blockchain explorer.
Insights
Just as all publicity is good publicity, maybe all activity is good activity; at least for the Blurt economy, even if not for all actors.
An issue came up on a post, whereby the Voting Capacity came into play. I explained it when I first introduced the metric, but here goes again. The Voting Capacity is an estimate of how much of the powered up BP is actually voting, on the assumption that each active account votes at the optimal rate.
So, if we multiply the total BLURT supply by the Vested rate and by the Voting Capacity, the above figures give an estimate of 101M BLURT. Comparing that to the support for the top witnesses shows that this is an under-estimate. At the time I created this, it was more important to track the weekly changes than the confidence interval of the absolute value.
Not much else to say this week!
Comparisons
I was going to remove these comparisons with other Graphene chains, but there continues to be talk of the relationships between the chains that these metrics below may help aid understanding of the flow of coin trades.
A comparison with the other Graphene chains done using the DLease delegation rates.
Steem DLease rates: max 19% APR (average 16%)
Hive DLease rates: max 10% APR (average 9%)
Those rates have always tracked the profitability of each chain and have the advantage of being one simple number.
Steem debt is now well over its ceiling of 10% and hence SBD printing is now zero.
We now have a BLURT price feed within the Blurt wallet, so I no longer need to give my weekly price comparisons. Instead, I shall show the difference between our BLURT feed estimate and the BBLURT price.
BLURT feed: $0.0079 (-5%/week)
BBLURT price: $0.0084 (-14%/week)
After weeks of holding firm in the face of a crypto winter, BLURT finally succumbs to a significant drop. This isn't really about the wider market but about people. Pan out to a chart of the last year and you will see it has had little to do with "following Bitcoin" and all to do with internal issues, both good and bad.
Note that any swap pool price will not necessarily reflect open market prices. A swap price will only change when there is an actual trade; buying BBLURT will increase the price and selling BBLURT will lower it. There are no "open orders", so every transaction will have an effect. This is how arbitrageurs make their money: buying and selling price discrepancies across different markets.
I hope these numbers will give members some insights into how the Blurt economic system is managed and, more importantly, how each individual user can both benefit from and affect the whole chain.
Blurt Better!
Buy BLURT on Probit, Ionomy, Hive-Engine.
Buy BYT on Hive-Engine
Please vote for my witness account @busbecq.
Can be done directly here.
A witness is more than a machine - and so are you.
Thanks!
I don't really sure I understand this
Did you mean for 100k BP the voting has a 25.7% APR? How do you calculate it?
Firstly, this is a calculated estimate, and like so many such parameters they vary from moment to moment as rewards are paid out and new votes are cast.
The "100k BP" goes back to when the Blurt reward curve was non-linear and I used to give estimates for 3 different BP values as the yields were quite different for redfish, minnows and whales. I kept that number as a reference point. You'd have to go way back to when the economic model was changed to see that I tested each yield to see that they did, as expected, converge to very similar values, hence was no longer necessary to keep all three.
The yield can easily be calculated from the economic formulas - is just a matter of plugging in the values into a spreadsheet. It requires the total BLURT, total BP, the reward pool and recent claims. What it doesn't include are the various fees, so the real yield will be slightly lower. The one major assumption is that everyone votes optimally, ie. using up 20% of their power daily.
I seem to have deleted the link to the original post explaining all this! Now need to find it and put it back in each post.
Just to add that, if you only voted optimally, and did not post or comment, then your curation yield would be half that gross vote yield.
Thanks to you I learned that it's a linear curve, I thought it was still non-linear. It would be nice if Blurt had a complete and up-to-date white paper.
I suspected that the fees were not included. I am still surprised by such a difference with HIVE.
Thanks for the detailed explanation
That is due to two things: firstly, Blurt at genesis reset the inflation to 10%, hence the minting rate is higher; but also, HIVE conversions into HBD are starting to have a significant effect (not so much in the total virtual HIVE but in the liquid HIVE).
There are posts on this, but the curve on Blurt is "almost linear". Upon analysis, the inherited "convergent linear" was horrible but also had some interesting features that were planned to be used later. So, by just changing the parameters of the original formula, we managed the "straighten the curve" - it has retained a very slight upwards trend, but as Blurt grows that too can be further straightened just by changing one parameter, instead of always recoding new formulas. There is also a good game-theoretic reason to have a gentle curve as it makes it unprofitable to keep splitting one's stake across multiple alts.
Thanks a lot for taking the time to develop your answer and to bring these precisions.
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