Blurt Economic Indicators - 24 October 2021

My weekly look at Blurt's economic indicators.

A bit early this weekend as I shall be away from my desk for a few days.

All rises and falls are relative to last week.

Blurt Economic Indicators

BLURT Supply = 437.9 million
Vested BLURT = 51.7% (-0.1)

Reward Pool = 1.95 million BLURT (falling)
Recent Claims = 91.5 TRshares (rising)

Vote Yield estimate (100k BP) = 40.2% APR (falling)

Author/Curation Yield estimate = 20.1% APR (half of the Vote Yield)

You can also see the raw numbers on a blockchain explorer.

Insights

This week sees the blockchain vote yield back to its downward trajectory. We see the reward pool falling and recent claims increasing.

I repeat this from last week. The BBLURT bridge appears to be under-used and the liquidity rather modest. Proof, if proof was ever needed, of the difference between words and actions when it comes to financial matters. There is even the service of a manual bridge by @blurtyield for those with modest amounts of BLURT. The idea that we should see BLURT in even more pools is somewhat unrealistic unless backed by some knowledge of how such pools work.

Predictions are slippery beasts, but here is what I said in a post in August.

Are there any targets of where the Blurt yield should be? Given that the economy retains some similarities to our ancestors, I would like to see the gross yield move down from the 50% to the 30% region. Let us not forget we peaked at around 70%, so have already come off that high - forget whatever happened in the first few months after genesis as these reward pool chains show massive returns before they stabilise, not unlike liquidity pools. Having said that, I also expect that would take maybe 4 months to achieve, so is a slow and steady progress. With more activity, although the yields may fall, the returns in absolute terms may rise for many bloggers as they receive (and give) more votes.

We may well be below 40% in November.

Comparisons

I shall continue to repeat that Blurt yields at the moment are higher than many defi swap pools - and without the danger of "impermanent losses". With BLURT coin prices being so low, this is also a good time to increase one's Blurt Power and accumulate for a future rise - we seem to be seeing that now!

A comparison with the other Graphene chains done using the DLease delegation rates.

Steem DLease rates: max 31.7% APR (average 23.8%)
Hive DLease rates: max 12.4% APR (average 9.7%)

Those rates have always tracked the profitability of each chain and have the advantage of being one simple number.

Although Vote Yields are expressed in terms of financial returns, they are also fundamental expressions of the level of activity on each chain relative to the coin minting rate.

Hive has undergone HF25 and, as predicted, rates are falling towards the chain yield. The Dlease rate seems to be yanked up and down by just one account, so oscillates between 10% and 13%. Steem is higher due entirely to the high SBD.

We now have a BLURT price feed within the Blurt wallet, so I no longer need to give my weekly price comparisons. Instead, I shall show the difference between our BLURT feed estimate and the BBLURT price.

BLURT feed: $0.0101

BBLURT price: $0.0091

Note that any swap pool price will not necessarily reflect open market prices. A swap price will only change when there is an actual trade; buying BBLURT will increase the price and selling BBLURT will lower it. There are no "open orders", so every transaction will have an effect. This is how arbitrageurs make their money: buying and selling price discrepancies across different markets.

This week, the BLURT price has risen dramatically, touching a high of 0.095 HIVE (about $0.07) and volatility has increased massively. We shall see if this can be sustained up to a near-term target of 10 cents.

I would also note that those users who are concerned about the BLURT statistics on CoinGecko realise that their price is now taken only from Probit and the BBLURT pool. So, if you wish to influence the public manifestation of the BLURT price then buy it on one of those platforms! Probit has by far the lowest transfer fee of just 0.1 BLURT.

I hope these numbers will give members some insights into how the Blurt economic system is managed and, more importantly, how each individual user can both benefit from and affect the whole chain.

Blurt Better!

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Buy BLURT on Probit, Ionomy, Hive-Engine and STEX.

Buy BYT on Hive-Engine

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Please vote for my witness account @busbecq.
Can be done directly here.
A witness is more than a machine.
Thanks!

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