Blurt Economic Indicators - 20 June 2021

My weekly look at Blurt's economic indicators.

All rises and falls are relative to last week.

Blurt Economic Indicators

BLURT Supply = 424.6 million
Vested BLURT = 49.8% (-0.2)

Reward Pool = 2.25 million BLURT (rising)
Recent Claims = 67.2 TRshares (falling)

Vote Yield upper estimate (500k BP) = 61.8% APR (rising)
Vote Yield lower estimate (500 BP) = 61.0% APR (rising)

Vote Yield estimate (100k BP) = 61.2% APR

Author/Curation Yield lower estimate = 30.6% APR (half of the Vote Yield)

You can also see the raw numbers on a blockchain explorer.

Insights

I promised in the past that I would drop the lower and upper estimates as they are now very close together, so shall henceforth use the new estimate, using an account with 100k BP. The difference across accounts is now only 1-2%, so it is easier to use just one number.

We continue to see the metrics change fairly quickly since HF6, as expected, with the upper yield estimate rising from 48.0% to 54.6% to 61.8%. All as predicted.

Now that HF7 has activate author rewards being paid 25% in liquid BLURT, I would expect to see the percentage of vested BLURT slowly fall - unless some meaningful new powering-up takes place - and, indeed, we are seeing the first signs of the vested percentage dropping slightly.

As @lazerlazer asked an interesting question, let me repeat my reply. The vested percentage on Hive is about 33% and on Steem 30% - both much lower than Blurt. The calculation is slightly complicated as they both have a non-vested second currency. Ignoring the HBD/SBD virtual supply, those numbers rise slightly to about 36% for Hive and 33% for Steem.

These low vesting rates across the Graphene chains have always been the reason that the vote-yields can be so much higher than the minting rate. The minting presses are churning out coins into an already saturated market. This is precisely why I added a feedback to the reward pool for Blurt that now responds to the actual active Blurt. The effect will be slow, as it is a slow-moving metric, but it means rewards will rise and fall as the vesting rate rises and falls - this is on top of the faster reaction to recent claims that depend on posting and voting.

Comparisons

As I've said before, such yields at the moment are higher than many defi swap pools - and without the danger of "impermanent losses". With BLURT coin prices being so low, this is also a good time to increase one's Blurt Power and accumulate for a future rise.

A comparison with the other Graphene chains done using the DLease delegation rates.

Steem DLease rates: max 31.3% APR (average 24.7%)
Hive DLease rates: max 13.8% APR (average 10.4%)

Those rates have always tracked the profitability of each chain and have the advantage of being one simple number.

Although Vote Yields are expressed in terms of financial returns, they are also fundamental expressions of the level of activity on each chain relative to the coin minting rate.

Hive will undergo HF25 on 30th June; it seems to me this will affect the curation-maximising algorithms and hence I expect the lease rates to possibly decrease, although this also depends on how the whole economy then reacts.

As we don't seem to have a functioning price feed on the explorers, these price snapshots may also help users decide where to trade BLURT.

Ionomy/Probit: 8/10 sats/BLURT (approx $0.0032)
Hive-Engine: 0.009/11 HIVE/BLURT (approx $0.0030)

The HIVE market appears to be the most active and the most volatile, so these are numbers for the current price range and best conversion to USD.

I hope these numbers will give members some insights into how the Blurt economic system is managed and, more importantly, how each individual user can both benefit from and affect the whole chain.

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Please vote for my witness account @busbecq.
Can be done directly here.
A witness is more than a machine.
Thanks!

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