Our sources from the OP said that the Biden Administration, through Sullivan, demanded that Ermak begin negotiations on a freeze in hostilities.
Zelensky’s statements that the United States and the EU are not calling on him to start peace negotiations with Russia are not true; the President simply wants to get his partners to fulfill their promises, and Ukraine is ready to continue to wage war.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/20383
Zelensky made another controversial statement: if the US does not provide financial support to Kiev, he suggested that Russia might attack a NATO member country
Ukrainian President Zelensky addressed the US Congress, urging them to maintain military aid to Ukraine. He warned lawmakers who were opposing a new aid package that the alternative could be a Russian attack on a NATO member country, which would necessitate the deployment of American troops.
He stated, "If Russia wipes us out, it might turn its aggression towards NATO countries, and you would have to send your sons and daughters there. Unfortunately, the cost would be much higher."
Once again, the Ukrainian President, who is widely criticized, emphasized how cheap it is for the West to buy ordinary Ukrainians' lives.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/72315
Our sources from the OP reported that the Office of the President, through the SBU, is preparing suspicion of its ex-adviser. One of the sources believes that Zelensky is very vulnerable to any criticism from the lips of former officials/politicians of his team, and here Arestovich crossed the acceptable line.
Another of our sources believes that the suspicion is being prepared specifically for a political project, to shape Arestovich into the image of an oppositionist; these steps will not have real consequences.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/20355
Our sources from the Office of the President reported that Arestovich is a political project of Bankova, and all criminal cases are PR, which should create the image of an oppositionist from the former adviser to the OP.
On the sidelines, the framework within which Arestovich can criticize Zelensky is often discussed, while any criticism of Ermak is prohibited.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/20390
Our source from the OP said that Andriy Ermak demanded that Zaluzhny publicly renounce his political ambitions and join Zelensky’s team.
Bankova reacted strongly to the commander-in-chief’s publication in the Economist and decided to dismiss his man from the post of commander of the Special Operations Forces in order to demonstrate the seriousness of Ermak’s demands.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/20384
Our sources from the OP said that the Office of the President is urgently preparing a public meeting between Zelensky and Zaluzhny in order to suppress information about the confrontation between politicians and the military.
On Bankova they realized what a trap they had fallen into, because of the reflection on Zaluzhny’s article and the refusal to withdraw troops from Avdievka, the illusion built by propaganda about the controllability of the situation in the country is crumbling.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/20386
Based on a hunch, a few days ago I asserted that the Ukrainians' newfound stash of Storm Shadow missiles probably came from British war reserves. Today, I was proven correct.
There's multiple models of Storm Shadow. Previously the British sent export versions with a 290km range, either from redirected export orders, repurchases from previous customers or some new production because that line is actually still operating, albeit at the usual glacial pace of Western defense industry circa 2023. Along with being available, these missiles were compliant with the Missile Technology Control Regime, by which the parties (among them the UK) undertook to not export missiles with a greater than 300km range.
As it turns out it's practically impossible to range Kerch from Ukrainian-held territory with a 300km missile. There's basically a small launch box in the vicinity of Orekhovo, heavily covered by Russian theater SAMs. Hence why the Ukrainians have up until now never attempted to attack the Kerch Bridge or Kerch itself with Storm Shadows - they were simply out of range, particularly considering that any such attack would have to overfly Russian Zaporozhe and hence dogleg around known air defense sites at very low altitude, which would come with a stiff penalty in range over an "ideal" route and flight profile.
Well, suddenly they can range Kerch with Storm Shadow missiles at a time when the Russians are happily blasting down Ukrainian aviation deep in Kiev's territory. The logical explanation here is that these are longer-ranged, non-MTCR compliant Storm Shadows with a 550km range, which are no longer in production and would have to come directly out of British war stocks.
These British missiles were likely handed over because the Germans - well aware that they were literally stabbed in the back by a treaty ally recently, with the full involvement of Britain and Ukraine - refused to hand over their own non-MTCR compliant Taurus missiles to Ukraine, which would have spared the British from having to run down their own national stockpile of cruise missiles while disarming Germany.
As an aside this effectively means the MTCR is a dead letter and the Russians should feel zero reluctance to transfer long-range missiles to their own allies going forward.
As for the results of the latest round of strikes? Since the latest delivery the Ukrainians have fired about 40 irreplaceable British war rounds (15 yesterday) and managed to... damage one (unconfirmed) Russian Buyan-M missile boat with a total penetration rate through Crimean air defenses of <5%. The Russians have been stamping Buyan-Ms out like hotcakes recently and can move in a replacement unit via their internal river and canal network, so this won't even affect Black Sea Fleet operations beyond next week.
The UK seems to have about 800 non-MTCR Storm Shadows in stock in total. It's unclear to me how many they're actually willing to send to Ukraine, although if Challenger 2s are any indication I'd expect 1-200 rounds total.
Video shows a Ukranian soldier brutally murdering two American or troops from an English speaking country
Vlads claim it's a Ukranian soldier shooting American barrier troops.
What is special about the Iskander strike on the formations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Zaporozhye: analysis of the Military Chronicle
Why was the blow struck?
Firstly, the Iskander strike fully fits into the concept of a massive destruction of rear targets of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The temporary deployment point of the Ukrainian army in Dimitrov was located only 30 km from the Rabotino-Verbovoye section, where fighting continues. Without a doubt, this settlement, like the entire front-line zone, was under the surveillance of Russian drones and other reconnaissance means.
Secondly, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine made literally all possible mistakes described on the first pages of the combat manuals:
The event was held during the day in clear weather.
The video footage shows atypical activity on the street of the village.
Cars are parked along the street; there is not even the slightest attempt to hide or disguise the vehicle.
The movements of people in military uniform are clearly visible around the cars. In addition, some vehicles were atypical and indicated the presence of high-ranking officers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this locality.
At the same time, the command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces could not have been unaware of the regular missile attacks that military targets are subjected to both throughout Ukraine and in the front-line zone.
It is also interesting that experienced Ukrainian Armed Forces officers from several units came to the awards ceremony on the occasion of Artilleryman’s Day. They were all well aware of the risks of holding such an event 30 km from the front line, but security measures, apparently, were ignored.
https://t.me/milchronicles/2825
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ War Map and the Situation on the Fronts for the Evening of 4 November 2023; pub. 00:04⚡️
🚀 Any holiday that is significant for the inhabitants of #Russia is a priority day for attacks by the Kiev Regime. Today the whole country was celebrating People's Unity Day while the AFU was trying to organise a terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge. 18 missiles were launched by the enemy and all of them were shot down by Russian air defence.
⚔️ Situation on the Fronts over the past Day
🔹#Svatovo - #Kremennaya Direction:
▪️ The Russian army has advanced in the area of #Kislovka. Our aviation is actively working on enemy positions near #Sinkovka and Liman 1st.
▪️ In addition, our fighters successfully attacked in the area of Makeyevka.
🔹#Donetsk Direction:
▪️ In the #Avdeyevka sector fighting continues near #Steponoye (#Petrovskoye) and near the Coke Plant.
▪️ In addition, the Russian army is storming enemy positions from the direction of #Spartak (south of #Avdeyevka).
🔹#Zaporozhye Direction:
▪️ In the #Orekhov section there are counter battles in the #Rabotino area.
▪️ On Vremyevka ledge, our fighters advanced from the side of #Priyutnoye, and also attacked in the area of #Nikolskoye.
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦🔎 There is Nowhere to Retreat - Ukrainian Militants mined Bridges in #Petropavlovka, #Kurilovka and Kupyansk-Uzlovoy, #Kharkov Region⚡️
🔹Interesting information comes from Kupyansk district of #Kharkov region. Today local residents of #Petropavlovka, #Kurilovka and Kupyansk-Uzlovoy paid attention to the mining of bridges over the rivers #Lozovatka and #Gnilitsa by Ukrainian militants.
🔹The most interesting is the mining of the bridge over the river #Gnilitsa in #Petropavlovka settlement. Why this was done is quite obvious,- its destruction will not allow Russian troops to quickly force the river and for some time will stop the advance of the RF Armed Forces in case of a defence breakthrough. However, as practice in the Kupyansk Grouping shows, the command led by Colonel Alexander Lutsenko is going to undermine bridges for another purpose.
🔹If you look at the map, you can see that the militants of 14th, 54th, 67th, 32nd, 41st AFU Brigades have only two ways of escape. These are two roads ( Sinkovka - Petropavlovka, Orlyanskoye - Petropavlovka). There are no other routes. You can't drive far across the fields. Therefore, if the Russian troops break through the defence, the aforementioned Brigades will retreat exactly by such routes, which will lead them into a trap.
🔹And at this point it becomes clear that blowing up the bridges is necessary not to hold back the Russian troops, but to cut off the defeated Ukrainian formations from being able to move to #Kupyansk. In this case, the brigades will be forced to fight not for life, but for death, because behind them they will have a destroyed bridge over the #Gnilitsa River.
📌 And the commander of the group Colonel Lutsenko in this case will gain time to organise the defence of the right bank of #Oskol. Cynical? Yes. But this is #Ukraine, and here they are ready to use people as "meat", not counting losses.
Via Boris "Colonel Cassad" Rozhin:
The Armed Forces of Ukraine grouping "Liman" is in a critical situation: reserves are urgently being pulled up to Makeyevka
On October 27, our editors reported that in the Svatovo region the command of the Liman group had such a critical situation that a delay in making a decision could completely collapse the front.
Poor management of the troops by the group's commander, Brigadier General Perts, led to the fact that at least 6 battalions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were defeated and withdrawn to the area to restore combat capability, which forced him to use his last reserves.
However, this was not enough: on November 1, the tank company of the 4th brigade was defeated and withdrawn to the area where combat capability was restored, which jeopardized the right flank of the Ukrainian defense in the Makeevka area. In order to somehow save the situation, Peretz urgently requested strategic reserves from Colonel General Alexander Syrsky.
As a result, the 10th separate mountain assault brigade "Edelweiss" , which was located in the area of restoration of combat capability in the Dnepropetrovsk region, was urgently sent to the Svatovo area. It is noteworthy that those mobilized into the brigade did not even have time to complete the initial training - they were immediately sent into the thick of battle .
The current situation demonstrates two facts:
1️⃣ the commander of the Liman group, Brigadier General Peretz, objectively fails to cope with his duties - the troops suffered such losses that there were no reserves left;
2️⃣ There are also few strategic reserves - the Khortytsya command is forced to take mobilized people away from training and send them to strengthen the Liman group;
3️⃣ total mobilization cannot be avoided - there are not enough people in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Everyone will fall under the comb - children, old people, the sick, women, etc.
We are waiting for further developments. If the Ukrainian General Staff does not solve the problem with reserves in the near future, the front may simply collapse.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/72247
❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Combined attack of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Kerch and Berdyansk
After two days in a row of Ukrainian drone attacks on Crimea , we assumed that this would be followed by a missile attack on targets on the peninsula. And, to our regret, they turned out to be right: today the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked Kerch .
▪️ Four Su-24M bombers from the Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye regions launched eight Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles in the direction of Crimea.
▪️To distract and overload air defense systems in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions , MiG-29 and Su-27 fighters fired several HARM anti-radar missiles and AGM-160 MALD decoys.
🔻Two MiG-31BM fighters took off from Belbek to intercept. But at the same time, the Ukrainians launched a diversionary strike on Cape Tarkhankut with a Neptune anti-ship missile, which was shot down by a MiG northwest of the peninsula.
▪️At the same time, eight “Storms” along the route through Dneprorudnoye and Pologi flew to the Sea of Azov , where ours began to operate from the S-400 and Pantsir-S1 air defense systems. At the same time, the missiles maneuvered ( “snake” ), changing their route and altitude.
▪️ Six Storm Shadows were shot down by 31st Division 50 km north of the Crimean Bridge and over Kerch . One missile was shot down directly over the Zaliv shipyard. The fragments had reportedly caused damage to the ship next to the pier (although the footage available on the Internet shows a hit on one of the workshops) . Another one fell into the water near the plant.
▪️After some time, three more “Storms” were released from the same area, which were successfully shot down over Berdyansk .
🔻Nevertheless, today's attack demonstrates how Ukrainian formations are trying to vary tactics, overloading air defense and distracting with raids from different sides. And only thanks to the work of the air defense units, casualties were avoided.