The situation in Avdiivka continues to deteriorate. The redeployed reserves from the Zaporozhye direction situationally stopped the Russian Avdeevka noose operation for a while, but did not fundamentally correct the situation.
We will have to constantly send reserves rather than weaken other directions - this threatens that it could break through in another place at any moment.
Our source reports that the Russians have increased the number of reconnaissance drones, which daily circle not only on the line of combat contact, but also in the rear. For example, 10-15 of them fly only in the Odessa region, and it is very difficult to shoot them down.
As soon as they identify a good target, either Onyx (if the Odessa region) or ballistics (if the Nikolaev, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye, Kharkov, Poltava region, etc.) immediately flies.
Kamikaze drones Geranium (mopeds) and a new version (popularly nicknamed lawnmowers due to the characteristic sound of the engine) also fly on a regular basis.
Now there are recorded departures of a large group from the South, which fly to Nikolaev and beyond and from the North to Cherkassy / Kyiv and beyond.
The war has become more positional and here the one who is better prepared for it will win...
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ War Map and the Situation on the Fronts for the Evening of 2 November 2023; pub. 00:04⚡️
🫶 Readovka's Military Correspondent Maxim Dolgov visited the recruits of the Bogdan Khmelnitsky Battalion, created on the basis of the OBTF "Kaskad". There he talked to a fighter with the call sign "Shum", who has lived in #Mariupol all his life and joined the AFU as a conscript. After captivity, Shum went through filtration and became a serviceman of the Russian army. He told our war correspondent about the deplorable situation in the enemy army, as well as about the lack of awareness about the real situation at the front among ordinary AFUshniks. The situation is so bad that Shum's fellow countrymen who are captured think that #Mariupol is still under the control of 404. Simply put, the choice for the fighter was obvious.
⚔️ Situation on the Fronts over the past Day
🔹#Svatovo - #Kremennaya Direction:
▪️ In the #Kupyansk sector, the Russian army has advanced in the area of #Petropavlovka and #Sinkovka. In addition, there are successes near #Makeyevka.
▪️ There are counter battles in the #Serebryanskoye forest.
🔹#Donetsk Direction:
▪️ In the #Avdeyevka sector, the AFU counterattacked north of the Coke Plant. Meanwhile, our fighters continue to storm enemy positions south of #Avdeyevka, near #Severnoye and #Pervomayskoye.
▪️ In #Maryinka there is fighting on the western outskirts.
🔹#Zaporozhye Direction:
▪️ The AFU tried to break through our defence near #Rabotino, but were punished by Russian artillery. In addition, the enemy unsuccessfully attacked near #Novoprokopovka and #Verbovoye.
▪️ On the #Vremyevka ledge positional battles.
💥 During a Night Strike on the airfield in #Mirgorod, a Ukrainian Su-27 was hit.
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Front Assessment for 2 Nov 2023 by 20:09⚡️
⭐️ Despite the gradual transition of military operations to positional fighting, the pace of fighting is not decreasing in most areas and is increasing in a number of areas.
🔹#Kherson: When SRGs with up to a platoon start moving, an artillery strike is launched. FPV drone activity on both sides has increased in recent weeks, but the Ukrainian Marines' optimism in the area has clearly waned, while losses have increased.
🔹#Zaporozhye: the last three AFU attempts to break through minefields have failed. In addition to FPV and Lancet drone attacks, Russian units began to ambush the AFU with mines. After breaking through a safe corridor and advancing equipment in the rear of the columns of Ukrainian equipment, the "Landmine" system is used, after which a barrage of artillery fire is opened on the columns. Retreating units are hit by mines and suffer casualties. Between #Malinovka and #Gulyaypole, Mi-28N and Ka-52 helicopters with LMUR missiles are actively operating. The main targets are Ukrainian SRG barracks and ammo depots; there is virtually no heavy equipment in this area.
🔹#Avdeyevka: The AFU situation in and around Avdeyevka Coke Plant begins to deteriorate. Despite some lull in the advance of ground troops, air and artillery strikes on the industrial zone and the surrounding area continue. Special attention is being paid to the movements of AFU equipment. The recent loss of American M2 Bradley IFVs and Leopard 2A6 tanks has cast doubt on their effectiveness. These vehicles are often operated by inexperienced drivers who have not had time to get to grips with the terrain and study the combat situation properly. As a result, the vehicles are hit, and the paratroopers perish before they get close to the opening fire lines. Fire control along the supply lines between #Lastochkino - #Orlovka - #Semyonovka is gradually being tightened. As far as possible, the AFU is trying to break up cargoes into small batches, which could lead to a repetition of the situation with "mosquito" logistics, as in #Bakhmut.
🔹#Bakhmut: Combat on the #Kleshcheyevka - #Andreyevka line has not stopped, but the AFU is gradually reducing the intensity and frequency of its attacks. The fatigue of the units and the need to prepare their positions for winter are having an impact. Movement and rotation are also complicated by precipitation. There are tactical improvements on the part of the Russians on the northern phase between #Berkhovka and Dubovo-Vasilyevka. The AFU supposedly received reinforcements in this area a month ago, but more than half of them have already been knocked out and need to rotate. As the activity decreases, counterbattery fire from both sides is becoming more frequent. The Ukrainian military is trying to manoeuvre and move self-propelled guns that have been transferred here partly from the #Zaporozhye and #Kherson directions. Mostly cluster shells are being used.
🔹#Kremennaya: Active military operations in the #Serebryanskoye forestry. The RF Armed Forces are 5 km from #Zarechnoye and #Torskoye. Advancement is slow, but the AFU attempts to counterattack or retake lost positions are quickly stalled and they are also losing positions to which they had occupied after a series of powerful counterattacks.
🔹#Kupyansk: Heavy rainfall pins the AFU to fortified areas and limits their movement. Because of this, the density and concentration of troops in a limited area increases. This gives the Russian artillery the opportunity to reduce the number of units and destroy the collected ammo. Rotation in the sector is difficult. the operational-tactical aviation of the Aerospace Forces continues to practice crossings and rear facilities of the AFU with FAB-500 aerial bombs. FAB-1500, ODAB-1500 and UPAB-1500B aerial bombs are actively used to destroy fortified targets.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/71938
How is Russia pushing Ukraine out of its counteroink “conquests” on the Zaporozhye/South Donetsk front, and doing it without major effort or significant offensive operations (well, other than the artillery preparation and air strikes)?
The reason is straightforward: Ukraine is pulling whatever reserves it can scrounge up and sending them to slow (not even stop) the bleeding at Avdeevka. These reserves, in turn find their timely grave on the Donetsk frontier.
The latest regarding the Avdeevka encirclement (from Divanny Genshtab):
On the northern flank of Avdeevka, the Russian army advanced towards the settlement of Novokalinovo and the town-type-settlement of Keramik. It also crossed the railroad line near Stepovoye, repelling counterattacks by the 47th brigade of the AFU.
This is not the only Ukrainian forces’ wound that’s bleeding arterial blood:
North of Artyomovsk, the Russian Armed Forces established full control over the Berkhovsky reservoir.
As you may recall, the petering out, the collapse, and the beginning of the reversal of the Ukrainian counteroink roughly coincided with the Russian Army’s offensive near Kupyansk and the along the Zherebets frontier, in the Oskol-Zherebets pocket. That was the first time since the start of the counteroink Ukrainians had had to scuffle reserves elsewhere, other than Zaporozhye/South Donetsk.
The situation has gotten obviously worse for Kiev. Apart from the Kupyansk front and the Oskol-Zherebets pocket, the Russian Army is pushing in at least four other theatres of the conflict:
the Krasny Liman direction (Map 1);
the Avdeevka encirclement operation (Map 2);
the Ugledar offensive (from the north and the south, this time); and,
the Artyomovsk-Chasov Yar pocket.
Without making any statements (for now) as to which of these is/are the primary operation(s), and which are secondary, designed to draw out Ukrainian reserves, it can be said that Ukraine is in for a very rough time. There is little gas left in their tank(s).
Slavyangrad, [11/2/23 11:17 AM]
No one is left: wounded militants are being urgently discharged from Lutsk
According to information from open sources, on October 29, Russian aviation conducted (https://t.me/ukrainian_guide/9271) massive air and rocket artillery strikes on the positions of the 14th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the vicinity of the settlements of Sinkovka and Petropavlovsk, resulting in heavy casualties within the unit. Major Nikolai Senkevich, the commander of the 2nd battalion, was among those killed (https://t.me/ukrainian_guide/9289).
The losses were so significant that the brigade's commander, Lieutenant Colonel Alexei Trubnikov, requested reinforcements (https://t.me/dillfrash/27641) from the Kupyansk group's command but received a negative response: all available troops are engaged at the front.
Having considerable connections within the Volyn regional administration, Trubnikov appealed to the authorities to expedite the discharge of wounded militants from the rehabilitation center for combatants, as well as from the Lutsk military hospital.
After consultation, the administration reached the following decision: official representatives of the administration and brigade officers were dispatched to these medical facilities to identify militants with minor and moderate injuries for their discharge and subsequent redeployment to the front.
As we learned from a conversation with a nurse at the Lutsk hospital, more than 25 fighters frome that brigade were discharged in this manner, as they would simply be unable to handle a machine gun due to their injuries.
Evidently, the situation is so dire within the 14th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine that Brigade Commander Trubnikov is compelled to urgently discharge his fighters from hospitals in an attempt to shore up the "gaps" in his defense.
#source (https://t.me/dillfrash/27669)
News: Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) Valeriy Zaluzhny wrote in his article for the British publication The Economist that the military conflict with the Russian Federation has “reached a dead end” and one should not expect breakthroughs at the front from either side.
Opinion: Tell Zaluzhny that we laughed at his grandiose “counter-offensive” just a couple of weeks after it began, i.e. back in June.
Well, as for the fact that the conflict has reached a dead end, I partially agree with the enemy in the sense that it’s really not worth waiting for deep breakthroughs of tank wedges and huge boilers, but the fact is that positionally large shifts should not be expected (at the operational and even tactical level no one canceled them), does not mean that the conflict itself in a broad sense has reached a dead end. More than a year ago, I invited readers to closely monitor the pace of production and delivery of artillery shells and expressed the thesis that in this war, the one who runs out of shells first will lose. Hint: we will never run out of them.
In order to understand when the AFU will not be able to get into position (after all, it is supported by artillery), you need to solve a conditional mathematical problem: in a full pool with a volume of so many liters, water arrives at a rate of X liters per hour, and decreases at a rate of Y liters per hour (X< Y), the question is, after how many hours (let’s denote the answer as Z) will it be impossible to swim in the pool? ))
I also believe that the closer to hour Z, the louder the voices will sound about the need to stop the “brutal conflict of fraternal peoples”, and at this moment it is very alarming, since realizing the doom of the resistance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces if the conflict continues, the West will offer various “goodies” , in order to conclude a “truce” and give its puppet Nazi regime time to restore, and here it will be important to show firmness and sacredly preserve the national interests of Russia, which are that we need victory, not a truce, and the Nazi regime in Kiev must be destroyed.
I extended the contract, forgot about the vacation, rolled up my sleeves, and moved on...
PS Our guys are in Pyatikhatki