⚠️ Based on the situation in the Avdeevsky direction.
⭕ Reports from the northern flank about our forces occupying the western side of the railway do not correspond to reality; reconnaissance was carried out in force, but no positions were occupied.
AKHZ was hit by a missile and bomb attack by the Aerospace Forces and heavy MLRS; among other things, a personnel accommodation point and an underground ammunition storage facility were hit, and secondary detonation was heard in nearby populated areas. They continue to compact Kabanchik, the destruction of materiel is very painful for the enemy, since it is impossible to transport large volumes of ammunition along the only road through Orlovka.
⭕ Along the southern flank.
Last night our forces carried out a daring foray into the area of the former air defense unit and, taking advantage of the surprise factor, eliminated several enemy observation posts along with the inhabitants.
Khokhol continues to fire back with cassettes, but does not go on the attack.Some units are threatening the command that they will leave their positions because they cannot wait for rotation for about a week, and the condition of the personnel does not allow them to remain on task for such a long time.
⚠️ Separately for the quarry: work is underway, we remind you that the capture of positions is followed by clearing and consolidation; in the case of a quarry, it is still necessary to go through higher work so that the victory does not become Pyrrhic. Each position can move from one side to the other several times a day, there is no need to run ahead of the locomotive as it was in Bakhmut, the boys sometimes have to catch up with the agenda.
Everything will be as Russia needs, a little patience.
⚠️ Avdeevka will be free. War criminals, which is every artilleryman of the Avdeevka garrison, will be punished.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/71775
As we assumed, they will try to discriminate against Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny using any black/gray methods in order to lower his authority/image.
Now there is a wave of people writing on behalf of Zaluzhny to famous people with various requests and proposals that are discreditable in nature.
He emphasized that he has only one channel on Telegram - the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
“The Zaluzhniy_ua telegram account does not belong to me, nor do any other accounts under the name “Valery Zaluzhny”, etc. They are all fake.”
Of course, this is done at the easy suggestion of the functionaries of the OP, who secretly, through decision-makers, order various black-and-white topics on the “social media market.”
Everyone understands that Zaluzhny’s high rating and authority among military and civilians threatens Zelensky in the long term. It will especially intensify at the moment when it will be necessary to answer for the failure in the offensive. Now everyone is writing about the sabotage of the military, who do not want to carry out the “stupid” orders of the OP.
Our source in the OP said that Zelensky demanded that Zaluzhny publicly support the defense of Avdiivka, and leave his vision of the military situation for later.
Bankova is well aware of the consequences of the Avdiivka cauldron for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but the surrender of the city would mean a political collapse for military and financial assistance to Ukraine.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/20344
Our source in the OP said that the Biden Administration recommended that the Office of the President hold Avdiivka now while negotiations are underway on a new aid package for Ukraine. If the city falls, the Republicans will have additional leverage to cut funding.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/20341
At his last headquarters, Zelensky was dissatisfied with the results of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, criticizing the General Staff for slow work in the offensive case and internal sabotage. This led to the fact that the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost the initiative and is already on the defensive.
The military convinced Ze that offensive actions were damaging to personnel, increasing the soldiers' disappointment and even aggression towards the leadership. If this continues to be the case with personnel, throwing them head-on, then no one will fight, but there will be their own “march of justice to Kyiv.”
Ze threatened in response that such an approach could leave Ukraine without money and Western weapons, that equipment and ammunition would run out faster than infantry. N He convinced the military to find an approach to the soldiers on the front line so that they would go forward. We need to show the West that investing in the Armed Forces of Ukraine is profitable - it will bring territorial results.
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/89735
◾A Ukrainian propagandist got a surprise answer when asking babushka about her rescue:
- Can you clarify which military men saved you?
- I’ll tell you, a tall handsome man... I saw the signs on his uniform.
- What flag did he have?
- Russian, honey, Russian.
The counteroffensive, although it turned out to be disappointing for Ukraine and the West, will not be able to be repeated by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the same scale.
Not only are there large losses among experienced fighters and military equipment, but also the fact that Kiev’s partners have switched to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and this is a direct road to a shell “hunger” - Israel will have to replenish its arsenals, and everything from the West will go there as to the priority direction.
However, one should not discount the miscalculations of the Ukrainian authorities made during the counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. And if we sum it up, we come to the obvious conclusion: it is the Office of President Zelensky who is to blame for the failure of the offensive campaign, and not Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny, who saw the fortified positions of the Russian Federation with his own eyes, and not in photographs, like the top of the Ukrainian government. Hence, new disagreements are growing between Zelensky and Zaluzhny regarding approaches to military operations in the country, which became known to both Ukrainians and the Western world during the battles for Soledar and Bakhmut.
Moreover, as Western media write, Zaluzhny again insisted on more cautious tactics and the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ emphasis on defense, but Zelensky once again disagreed with this (which, in general, led to the “Azov massacre”, in which Ukraine suffered colossal losses and to the organization of the “Avdeevka stranglehold” by the RF Armed Forces, which will help them not only capture the city, but also gain operational space).
https://t.me/rezident_ua/20339
The West is confident that the fall of Avdiivka will be a death sentence for financial and military assistance to Ukraine. Bankova understands this well, which is why Zelensky is against Zaluzhny’s position on the withdrawal of military personnel from the city, and Tarnavsky transferred reserves from the Zaporozhye direction.
The battles for Avdiivka became the bloodiest since the beginning of the war, - NYT
Putin wants to capture the city because it will be a “big victory” for him.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/20338
Our source reports that the Head of the OP Ermak keeps Zelensky in a relatively “warm” information bath, which is convenient primarily for Andrei Borisovich in his game. Therefore, the Time article added criticism to Ermak’s position in the Office of the President.
Most of all, Ermak did not like the fact that information from Bankova continues to leak as rumors from “anonymous sources” to the Western press; all these years, information has been leaking to Telegram. Although Ermak is constantly looking for those who “share information.”
The second point, which in the Time article is an indicator of the situation in the country, is the hidden disappointment of the president’s entourage. Nobody believes in victory. Like in 2022, no one believed for 2-3 weeks, immediately understanding about a long war, but they put on a “mask” and told the masses a fairy tale that victory was about to come.
This means that everyone understands that there will be a defeat, even if not now, but in the next 15-18 months Ukraine will lose new territories, and the economic situation will become even more catastrophic.
The Russian Armed Forces carried out a massive raid on enemy targets in the rear at night. “Geraniums” hit targets in Kremenchug and Mirgorod, Poltava region, and explosions were reported in the Kiev, Chernigov, and Khmelnytsky regions.
▪️In the Kherson direction, the enemy holds part of the village of Krynki at a high cost. Yesterday, a Ukrainian Armed Forces Marine was captured in this area, and constant fire from our artillery and TOS continues on enemy positions. Radio communications from the enemy who crossed over included requests for evacuation and reports of the impossibility of continuing breakthrough attempts. The enemy shore is hit with heavy anti-aircraft guns and artillery.
▪️On the Zaporozhye front near Rabotino, a group of enemy infantry transferred to the combat area was destroyed. They report an increase in the use of high-precision Krasnopol M2 projectiles by the Russian Armed Forces to suppress enemy firing points. Despite this, the intensity of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ artillery fire is not decreasing.
▪️In the Avdeevka direction, heavy fighting continues on the northern flank near the waste heap. Information about the start of the assault on the industrial zone of the Avdeevsky coke fuel plant turned out to be premature; the Russian Armed Forces are carrying out preparatory tasks. The logistics capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are being reduced: one of the few roads for supplying the enemy group remains the route through the village of Orlovka.
▪️Over the past 24 hours, shelling of Russian border regions has intensified. These are Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk regions. In addition, 2 UAVs were destroyed over the Kursk region, 2 over the Belgorod region, and 1 over the Bryansk region. The Ukrainian Armed Forces fired 168 ammunition at Donetsk, two civilians were killed.
▪️An air raid alert was announced again in Sevastopol this morning.
by @dva_majors
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦🔎 How the AFU Tactics Have Changed in the #Zaporozhye Direction - Military Chronicles Analysis⚡️
❗️The offensive on this section of the front is gradually waning. The AFU is trying to adapt to changes in the combat situation, but is facing serious difficulties.
🔹What is Happening?
▪️From August to the end of October there was a gradual decrease in the intensity of the use of artillery by the AFU, which can be attributed to a number of mutually influencing factors. The main one, during the first phase of the summer campaign, significant stocks of 155mm artillery shells were used up and lost during the AFU strikes, which were not subsequently replenished. Already on 7 July, the #US announced the delivery of DPICM cluster munitions to #Ukraine. Such ammunition is poorly suited for a number of tasks, in particular the destruction of field and long-term fortifications, but for a while made it possible to compensate for the shortage of conventional artillery ammunition. However, after almost five months of active combat and against a backdrop of reduced supplies, the shortage of ammunition for field and self-propelled artillery has worsened.
▪️In addition to 152/155 mm high-explosive fragmentation ammunition, in a number of directions and areas there is a decrease in the activity of mortars of 120 and 82 mm caliber, which indirectly indicates a shortage and the need to save such ammunition. As a result, in a number of areas, the AFU are forced not only to reduce fire support activity, but also to look for substitutes.
🔹What are the AFU trying to replace Artillery with?
▪️FPV drones and armored vehicles often act as ersatz artillery.
▪️As a rule, the equipment is used at night for direct fire at the Russian positions. FPV drones are used against scouted or detected targets within the range of UAVs.
▪️However, due to design features, neither type of weapon can fully fulfil the same tasks as artillery.
▪️For example, the single M2 Bradley IFVs of the AFU's 47th Magura Brigade, some of which the AFU command deployed to #Avdeyevka, are used as direct infantry support weapons.
▪️This is connected not so much with the need to ensure a breakthrough or advance, but rather with the requirement to signify the AFU's presence in a certain area. In other words, IFVs are not used for offensive action, but for organising harassing fire, which goes against the concept of their combat use.
🔹What is wrong with this approach?
▪️The main problem for the M2 Bradley IFV, oddly enough, was combat operations at night. American vehicles are capable of firing at night, but crews in most cases use only the 25-mm Bushmaster cannon for firing. It is not intended to destroy field fortifications and is of little assistance to the AFU infantry units. In addition, the use of small groups of equipment exposes combat vehicles to the risk of falling under counter fire.
▪️This is especially critical in cases of foreign-supplied armoured vehicles, which the AFU cannot replace.
▪️FPV drones, on the other hand, have become pure "frontline improvisation" for the AFU due to the decrease in artillery activity. Their effectiveness at the moment can be compared to the French trench mortars of the First World War. The area of application of these devices is narrow and their effectiveness is low. At best, they can be used for very limited, specialised tactical tasks.
📌 In any case, the trend shows that the AFU's stocks of conventional ammunition have been seriously depleted by the summer and autumn campaign,- and in some areas they have to be seriously saved, while there is no shortage of ammunition on the Russian side.