All I will say is that we just bounced off the bottom of an important channel and the odds are that we get a bounce from here. Bitcoin loves to form ranges before it breaks out however (like it did the last time it we were hovering around this line) so it will likely not be as simple as going straight back up to 70k.
There is also still the possibility of us coming back to test the 0.618 speed fan from the "corona low" (March '21) to the ATH (Nov '21). A touch of this (yellow) line will surely see a reaction, but for now we have front run it. Like unfinished business which very often tends to get resolved in the end.
We may perhaps even drop further, back to this old unbroken trendline, also from the corona low.
Whatever happens, until I see the price under this trendline, unable to break back above it, as far as I am concerned we are still in a bull market and there is no reason why we cannot reach a new ATH in the next six months.
It is worth noting that we still need to get back inside the value area low (VAL) of the 2021 range and should we reject here, we can expect further downside, perhaps to one of those two levels I mentioned.
Before I understood how to read charts I used to call manipulation a lot, but now I realise there is no such thing as manipulation in this market. All you have are professional traders taking money from the rest.
It is basically just a complex system of transferring wealth from the poor to the rich and my main advice when it comes to trading is this: learn how to do it or don't do it at all.
And by learn I mean dedicate yourself fully to it for a period of years, not just staring at the charts but by learning from those who know (which does not include the YouTube moonboys). When I went through the test of becoming a professional drone operator back in 2019 I felt this to be quite a complicated experience (not much different to being a pilot) but compared to trading that was simple.
Bitcoin is the cruellest market on earth and it is particularly good at getting you to sell when you should be buying and buy when you should be selling.
So remember, it is when you are feeling greedy (counting your earnings in your head like you're going to be a zillionaire soon) that you should be taking profits. And it is when you are feeling fearful (wondering if you should sell your crypto before it goes to zero) that you should in fact be buying. Ideally with the profits you took at the top!
The fear & greed index for the crypto market is a pretty good indicator to keep your eye on.
Buy when their is blood in the streets!
I started a discord server a few months back upon which I keep all my trading notes & ideas. I am still very much a student of this art, but you are welcome to follow me there if this is your thing. Always happy to share what I have learned with anyone who is interested. I do ask however that you DM me if you would like an invite as I prefer not to post it publicly.
Over & out traders.
Enjoy the ride!
Gosh! a meaningful TA post!
Yes, $33k made me chuckle.
There is manipulation, but it is done in the guise of mathematics, hence the individual can profit from understanding the construct. Indeed, Bitcoin has become closer to a derivatives market since BTC derivatives were created - the tail now wags the dog - and now that volume is larger than actual on-chain trades.
I sold off the cream at both peaks - my only regret is not selling more, but I do use shorts to give me a small profit on the way down.
Appreciate your 'meaningful TA' comment. It has taken no small amount of effort to get the point I am now at. Though if truth be told I still feel quite far from being a consistently profitable trader.
Sure there is manipulation, it's just a constant thing. Built into the system. And as you say, the tail wags the dog now!
I wonder if we chuckled for the same reason when it hit 33k? For me it was because I know this is a favorite number of the elite and I entered a decent leveraged long at this level with this in mind.