Define irony...
Did you know that currently bitcoin is up the exact same amount year-to-date as it was back in 2016?
Do you know when bitcoin had its previous halving?
If you said 2016, you deserve a prize...
That's right, the previous halving took place on July 9th, 2016 which is why it make sense to pay attention to when talking about bitcoin price cycles.
Check this out:
(Source:
This was also a halving year with the most recent halving taking place on May 11th, 2020, which is what makes this stat so interesting and applicable.
If this trend were to continue we would be looking at bitcoin making new highs on or around January 2nd, 2021.
It's all about the halvings...
It really is amazing how much bitcoin seems to follow these 4 year price cycles.
It's not an exact science but things have mirrored them pretty closely.
In both previous halvings we saw bitcoin peak roughly 12-18 months after the halving.
Which looked something this:
(Source:
If it were to continue to follow the pattern set forth in 2016 halving, we would see bitcoin make new highs in late 2020 or early 2021.
Then we ultimately would see the price peak in late 2021.
It probably won't follow the previous pattern exactly, but either way it should be a very exciting next 12-18 months.
The bull run has started, hope you packed your bags.
Stay informed my friends.
-Doc
History, as they say; repeats itself.
Yes it does.
What goes around comes around, it has and always will be - this is the way, there is no other and never will be.
I am not sure about all that but at least with bitcoin and these 4 year cycles, things tend to repeat an awful lot.
Only because of halving. Otherwise it would not be so predictable.
Eliminating halving was one of the core goals of the cryptonote protocol that is the basis of Monero, in the whitepaper for cryptonote it discusses the issue of the security vulnerability created by it, as it forces miners to shut down at least half of their capacity for a while due to the halving of block rewards. Less miners = less secure.
We are past that point, and as that whitepaper predicts, the market does not like halvenings that's why it takes nearly a year for the market to return to normal. Right after halving, usually there will be a big sell-off from miners which is why the price was depressed at 8-9000 for the last 6 months. That's the mechanism at play.
Note that the graphene chains do not have halvenings, in fact a large number of PoS chains don't have them. Their price action is consequently less stair-stepped also, and less predictable. Eventually bitcoin will lose its privileged position because of the antiquated protocol features especially halvings.