Bitcoin still has a ways to go before eventually topping out during this cycle according to one metric
Some have been comparing the recent price action to what happened back in June of 2019, IE when bitcoin ran up to $14k and then over the following months dumped to new lows as the bull market fell part.
Don't.
What we have now is night and day compared with what happened back then.
First, that run up started premature based on past cycles and it was mainly driven by extremely oversold conditions, IE short covering, as well as a news event.
The news event was the highly anticipated Bakkt launching, which was supposed to open bitcoin and crypto up to the institutional world.
Bakkt launched with a whimper and then we had the president, treasury secretary, and a couple other powerful people taking shots at bitcoin around that time.
That was enough to send bitcoin back to the lows and crush the green shoots of a bull market.
This time is different...
While I am not going into all the details as to why exactly this time is different, but instead I will just mention the most important one...
We are now several months removed from our latest block reward halving.
A time-frame that has historically seen a massive bull market every single time it has happened.
Getting past the history lesson aspect of this, we are now close to $40k and near the all time highs but there is one metric indicating there is likely more to come:
The thermocap multiple isn't anywhere near levels where we have seen it get to when tops have historically occurred.
If you look at the above chart you can see that the multiple has gotten at least to 40 every single time a major top has been put in.
Currently we are around 20.
For more info on what the thermocap multiple is and why it tends to predict tops, check this out:
Basically all you need to know is that until it gets at least until 40, the play is to hodl!
Stay informed my friends.
-Doc
I think there will be no more use of historical data. Why? Because now the big players are here and they are using AI for trading, so I think the market might move differently than in other years. And then again you should consider that there are more and more people who "know" how to make some money. Those who will just put money in and forget about it are in the fall.