Crypto Twitter is starting to post all kinds of bearish charts on BTC again, which probably means it's about to go up
Usually the market does the opposite of however the most amount of people are positioned.
Just the way it works.
If everyone is already long, there is no one left to buy and if everyone is short or sold there is no one left to sell.
Seeing charts like this being posted on crypto twitter today:
(Source:
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In general crypto twitter is better than most places but the age old adage I mentioned above still rings true.
If everyone is now expecting a dip, it's not going to happen.
What are you expecting?
Sentiment means nothing, and the prices move where the people put the biggest bet. Most traders are working from charts and news but, to use the experienced trader Nassim Caleb's excellent book title, they are fooled by chance.
When movements are predictable, a lot of order books pile up with momentum. But one pip too far opposite can see the state hit a watershed and then stops kick in and cascade.
My small experience shows that we tend to pick wrong far more than a coin flip.
My trading experience was on the highly liquid EUR/USD Forex market. I picked wrong 3 times out of four. A coin would literally perform better. But I reacted to be profitable by sticking to trailing stops and with this I profited by winning more than the volatility by feeling out the volatility and setting the trail just beyond it, and several trades did over 300% more than compensating 3 times out of four wrong direction.
With crypto liquidity is too low and volatility dilates and contracts very quickly.
So, forget profit next week, or next month. Crypto is a put on fiat, and in 3-12 month periods are the shortest, up top years.
Buy, deposit into a paper wallet and don't touch it for such periods.
When fiat finally falls forever, we will have liquid crypto markets and then you can profit under month timelines. But even then a week is typical.
Day trading is for robots in server rooms next door to the exchange data centre.
Crypto is going up because the central banks are playing ponzi and printing money for their friends. And from what I see, crypto is replacing gold, which is always a safe bet against profligate fractional reserve bankers.
There was an experiment a while back done by Harvard or Yale or one of those ivy league schools that showed a coin flip picking stocks worked better than hedge fund top picks.
Completely matches my own trading record too.
I figured out this last day, not that I didn't know, but the number one secret of getting rich is not spending money.
I will probably go back to Serbia, scoop up my covid stimulus money, which probably will continue to be paid for several months longer, learn to catch, gut and cook fish out of the Danube and open a Forex account and flip a coin to decide which of euro and USD are going down faster and buy Bitcoin from the profit. Seems like as good a plan as any.