Each of the tiny coloured lines on this chart is a week of BTC price action. I've been analyzing it for 9 years full-time even though I don't invest. In 2022, the Bitcoin chart is looking the worst it has over that entire timeframe. Allow me to explain.
That is a 10 year BTC chart in logarithmic scale, showing trends and patterns over a vast amount of time and price.
What it shows is a clear bullish channel (trend). I've also marked a potential bullish path, following that channel (in blue), and a potential bearish path, falling out of that channel (in pink).
In other words, $120k is possible within a year or two. But so is $12k. What's it going to be?
As you may know, I correctly predicted BTC prices for almost a decade, before retiring as "Bitcoin Seer" in late 2021. Why did I get out of the Bitcoin price prediction game? Because I sensed that the pattern I had been using to make my predictions had ended. I also felt a significant change in global fundamentals for the crypto market. It was time to retire undefeated.
Have another look at that chart.
Notice this is only the 3rd time the price has tested the lower trend line. The other times were in 2015 (bottom of the first crypto bear market) and 2020 (the global economic crash caused by Covid fearmongering).
Could this just be another such event? Yes, hence the potential recovery line in blue.
But the world isn't in the same place it was in 2020 or 2015. We are on the brink of a supply chain collapse, which itself could trigger unprecedented societal turmoil. The global economy is on the brink of depression, like it was back in 2008 (before BTC existed). Another "Lehman Brothers" type event could be in our near future, and markets post-Covid are incredibly shaky. The global contagion risk is higher than ever. All it's going to take is one big hedge fund or bank to go under. This was not the case in 2020 or 2015.
For the first time, fundamentals (like what's happening in the world) is having a significant effect on the price. It's not just a repeating pattern of new highs, bowl-shaped corrections, and more new highs. We can no longer just assume the bullish uptrend will be obeyed. Yes, we're down hard from the top of $69k, but that doesn't mean our suffering is done.
Over the past couple years, internet access has been becoming less reliable, even in the developed world, making cryptocurrencies less convenient. Energy prices are at a record high, and with the war in Russia, could have a long way yet to climb. There are even real talks about the power grid going down on a regular basis in Western countries, something that would not be conducive to Bitcoin adoption.
Along with senses developed over 10 years of nonstop price analysis, the above tells me that the long term trend is no longer assured. Hence, the Bitcoin chart has never looked worse than it does today.
Granted, it's always darkest before the dawn. Considering the rest of the crypto market largely follows what BTC does, and I own half a million BLURT, I'm definitely rooting for Bitcoin. Just saying, as retired Bitcoin Seer... I no longer believe it's guaranteed.
I hope to be proven wrong on this one.
DRutter
Re🤬eD
As a fellow Seer... I'm seeing XRP being the one that flips Over Bitcoin. But that's been hindered for more than a year.
As it stands, graphene (STEEM hive BLURT) at least still has the utility built in already. No need for a bank or exchange if managed properly.
But there is no way Bitcoin is crashing in This world. I believe it will be back to $69k by Christmas.
Fingers crossed bud!!
I'm crossing
More than fingers 🤌
Good job, you are doing really well, especially for Mars!
$1.2?....
BTC/crypto, has never existed in an economic downturn.
Not only is it untested, it's been the sponge to eat up all the cheap money that's been printed ever since '08 - the excess liquidity sponge ?.
....And that way it never saw it's way into precious metals/commodities. ('real money', or tangibles'). It diverted attention.
All that has now changed.
'You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality', and all that....
Reality will never be denied, no matter how much hot aired hopium is emitted by the delusional.
'Learn to code ?'
...lol...'Learn to grow vegetables', more like.
I'm good at growing vegetables, but I wish I was great.
While we're wishing, I wish my silver stack hadn't gone overboard on that boating trip a while back! You know?
Oh well, we could always go haskap berry picking, lol!
'Good enough' is....good enough.
Massive commiserations on your lost silver stack !... it seems that these boating accidents are becoming a very common problem...
I don't have that particular issue, so no need to worry about it when I go fishing.
...How to dry and store all my catch however?...A different story altogether...
We all have our own hurdles to jump, I guess .
This is the first decent post I've seen with a big bitcoin graph as the cover picture and I have seen a lot of those. I'd love to see Bitcoin and all crypto go to a million dollars, but the reality is we are getting close to 8 billion humans on earth and war and turmoil have already begun. I think this is a good year to teach my kids some real "life skills". At middle school my kid is learning how to create a multiverse character and grow and store grain in the multiverse. I don't think anyone will ever be able to eat that grain... not even his pixelized character.
Some of the "learning" going on nowadays really doesn't seem very useful to me. Half of it seems more like "training" and the other half like "nonsense"...
Where did you get this from, I'm curious to know more. In my country(Dracula's country), it looks like internet reliability improves more and more, not less.
One example was last week, half of Canada's internet, banking, and phone service was unavailable for an entire day, and not working properly for another 2 days. Our grid is old and patched together from various obsolete technologies. Supposedly it is also under constant attack from "Russian hackers" but that probably really means "from within".
For now I can consider myself lucky, here we have fast and cheap internet, the networks are new enough and they keep upgrading them all the time from cable to fiber, also the 4G works fast. If something happens for my internet to go down is usually a small local problem and it doesn't last very long.
This is my morning speed for which I pay $10 US a month!
The contract states that I should get UP TO 600Mbps but even 500 is not that far off.
Wow that is stellar!
I pay 5 times what you pay for 1/10th the speed. How is that for "most advanced country". Total BS.
This is one of the few things working properly in this country, the internet..
Romania ranked 4th in the world last year:
Dude... rule one buy low sell high...
Thats it....
When i bought it at 3k it looked great. When i sold it at 40k it looked shit.
19k is interesting but it could be lower soon
That is rule #1 for investing, something I am morally against, so it doesn't apply to me.
So dont moan that you have no money then you numpty....
Your argument is certainly uncontaminated by logic!
thanks - i may be bit more of a filthy capitalist than you though!
Maybe you're like that dollar vigilante guy, who calls himself an anarcho-capitalist? But then again, really he's no anarchist, he's a government supporter who pays his taxes and stands in line for his travel passport. And he's not so much into free market capitalism, more like profiteering. Actually, hopefully you aren't much like him at all!
I am definitely a free market guy. Morally, I don't like most forms of "investing" even though people lump that in with capitalism.
Yes im a DV subcriber, rolling in cash is fun
Only a slave and/or statist would think that.
I think BTC could reach 30.000$ than go down again, under the $ 20,000.00
Unfortunately it is 5 months later, and BTC has only gone down further, from 20k to 16k now. Hopefully we are near the bottom!
It's amazing how investors have all fled. Usually, after a drop of about 60%, some buyers meet again and the price rises a little, but for now there has been no recovery.
Bitcoin often recovers slowly, sometimes taking a year before a real breakout after a crash.
yes, it seems to me too… Most likely we will see Bitcoin recover in the middle of 2023 or towards the end of 2023
many say the bottom is at $14,000, I believe it is at $10,000. Only on $10,000 is there important support, I don't see any others