What would happen if Bitcoin had a good day?

As a thought experiment, let's look at what might happen if, tomorrow, the Bitcoin price had a reasonably good day.

First of all, what's the current situation?

Since March, BTC has been consolidating around the $70,000 USD level - essentially the November 2021 all-time high. The price has been pretty stable for the past couple weeks. Hype and volume have died down, even as the price is pushing the upper boundaries of the channel.

As we can see by just this small section of the chart, Bitcoin often has +5% days, and occasionally has +10% days. They can happen any time - following bad days, following good days, during downtrends, during uptrends.

So let's define a good day as +7.5%, something which has been happening every few weeks or so lately.

Here's tomorrow's hypothetical chart:

74,000 and change... a new all-time high. Which almost certainly means another burst of buying, likely taking the price to about 80 thousand dollars.

This is what the result of one good day would look like on the long-term weekly chart (in logarithmic price scale):

A resumption of the bull market, in other words. The 3 month consolidation would be over. But before going into what that would result in, how likely is this? Do any other metrics support another leg up? After all, some people are saying the bull market came early this cycle, and it's already over.

Turns out, we can look at moving averages for another clue.

That's the BTC price going back more than 10 years, showing 3 cycles. Each cycle is 4 years, and is created by the underlying halving feature programmed into the blockchain. See the long-term moving average line in orange.

Notice that each time the moving average makes a new high, prices move upward to new levels for the following year or so. This is a huge tell that the bull market is just getting started.

Also, we haven't yet gone into the hyper-bullish frenzy that occurs every cycle. Things have been pretty tame so far this time:

So, we've established that it's fairly likely Bitcoin could have a good day, and that would mean a jump toward $80,000. We've also established that it's likely the bull market isn't finished, and we've just been in a consolidation period. So it's quite possible the rest of 2024 could result in the following addition to the chart:

One single good day could set that off, and we'd be headed for somewhere around $150,000 USD per coin within 6 months.

It's not a sure thing by any means, but it's at least fairly likely, unless something HUGE happens in the world to change the entire financial landscape. It's at least likely enough that more people should be taking note, but the hype out there is minimal. As the price fails to make new all-time highs since March, many have lost interest, or even thrown in the towel. Some are predicting a return to a bear market.

All it would take is one good day to turn everything around, and my guess is that's what's going to happen.

DRutter